nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalBiden's guide to getting 270 electoral votes in 2024 is winning AZ,GA,and WI.
Biden won AZ,GA,and WI in 2020 by a less than 1 percent margin.
Biden is going to win
CA-54
CO-10/64
CT-7/71
DE-3/74
DC-3/77
HI-4/81
IL-19/100
ME statewide and CD1-3/103
MD-10/113
MA-11/124
MI-15/139
MN-10/149
NV-6/155
NH-4/159
NJ-14/173
NM-5/178
NY-28/206
OR-8/214
PA-19/233
RI-4/237
VT-3/240
VA-13/253
WA-12/265
Biden needs to win AZ-11,GA-16,or WI-10.
I expect Biden to win AZ,GA,and WI. =302 ev plus NC 318 ev. plus NE-2CD.
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 from safe to vulnerable.
1)CA(Schiff-D/Porter-D) No Republican Nominee in the November General Election.
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)MD(Cardin-D)
4)VT(Sanders-I)
5)MA(Warren-D)
6)NY(Gillibrand-D)
7)RI(Whitehouse-D)
8)MN(Klobuchar-D)
9)DE(Carper-D)
10)CT(Murphy-D)
11)WA(Cantwell-D)
12)ME(King-I)
13)NM(Heinrich-D)
14)NJ(Menendez-D)
15)VA(Kaine-D)
16)PA(Casey-D)
17)NV(Rosen-D)
18)WI(Baldwin-D)
19)MI(Slotkin-D)
20)AZ(Gallego-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that go from safe to vulnerable.
1)CA(Schiff-D/Porter-D) No Republican in the November General Election.
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)VT(Sanders-I)Balint-D
4)MD(Cardin-D)Sarbanes-D
5)NY(Gillibrand-D)
6)MA(Warren-D)
7)RI(Whitehouse-D)
8)MN(Klobuchar-D)
9)WA(Cantwell-D)
10)CT(Murphy-D)
11)DE(Carper-D)Blunt Rochester-D/Carney-D)
12)ME(King-I)
Low Double Digit Margin.
13)NM(Heinrich-D)
14)NJ(Menendez-D)
15)VA(Kaine-D)
16)MI(Slotkin-D)
17)PA(Casey-D)
18)WI(Baldwin-D)
Single Digit Margin.
19)AZ(Gallego-D)
20)NV(Rosen-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 from most safe to most vulnerable.
1)CA(Schiff-D/Porter-D)
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)MA(Warren-D)
4)VT(Sanders-I)Balint-D
5)MD(Cardin-D)Sarbanes-D
6)NY(Gillibrand-D)
7)RI(Whitehouse-D)
8)MN(Klobuchar-D)
9)DE(Carper-D)Blunt Rochester-D/Carney-D
10)CT(Murphy-D)
11)WA(Cantwell-D)
12)NM(Heinrich-D)
13)ME(King-I)
14)NJ(Menendez-D)
15)PA(Casey-D)
16)NV(Rosen-D)
17)VA(Kaine-D)
18)MI(Slotkin-D)
19)WI(Baldwin-D)
20)AZ(Gallego-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that are suppose to be close but Democrats will win.
1)AZ(Gallego-D)
Republican nominee will be Lake-R or Masters-R
Lamb-R,Lamon-R,and Taylor Robson-R are also weak General Election candidates.
2)MI(Slotkin-D)
Republican nominee will be McClain-R or Huizenga-R
3)MT(Tester-D)
Republican nominee will be Rosendale-R or Zinke-R
4)NV(Rosen-D)
Republican nominee will be Laxalt-R
5)OH(Brown-D)
Republican nominee will be Dolan-R, Davidson-R or LaRose-R
6)PA(Casey-D)
Republican nominee will be Mastriano-R or Barnette-R.
7)VA(Kaine-D)
Republican nominee will be Smith-R or Cao-R
8)WV(Manchin-D)
Republican nominee will be Mooney-R
9)WI(Baldwin-D)
Republican nominee will be Hovde-R or Nicholson-R
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 from most safe to most vulnerable.
1)CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D)
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)MA(Warren-D)
4)NY(Gillibrand-D)
5)MD(Cardin-D)Sarbanes-D or Alsobrooks-D
6)VT(Sanders-I/D) Balint-D
7)RI(Whitehouse-D)
8)MN(Klobuchar-D)
9)DE(Carper-D) Blunt Rochester-D or Carney-D
10)CT(Murphy-D)
11)WA(Cantwell-D)
12)ME(King-I)
13)NM(Heinrich-D)
14)NJ(Menendez-D)
15)NV(Rosen-D)
16)VA(Kaine-D)
17)PA(Casey-D)
18)MI(Slotkin-D)
19)WI(Baldwin-D)
20)AZ(Gallego-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
Democrats have a chance of picking up
FL(Murphy-D)
TX(Allred-D or Joaquin Castro-D)
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 from most safe to most vulnerable.
1)CA(Schiff-D or Porter-D)
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)MA(Warren-D)
4)VT(Sanders-I/D) or Balint-D
5)MD(Cardin-D or Sarbanes-D/Alsobrooks-D
6)NY(Gillibrand-D)
7)RI(Whitehouse-D)
8)MN(Klobuchar-D)
9)DE(Carper-D)Blunt Rochester-D/Carney-D
10)CT(Murphy-D)
11)WA(Cantwell-D)
12)ME(King-I)
13)NM(Heinrich-D)
14)NJ(Menendez-D)
15)VA(Kaine-D)
16)PA(Casey-D)
17)NV(Rosen-D)
18)WI(Baldwin-D)
19)MI(Slotkin-D)
20)AZ(Gallego-D)
21)OH(Brown-D)
22)MT(Tester-D)
23)WV(Manchin-D)
Class of 2024 Incoming US Senators
CA(Assuming Feinstein leaves office before her term expires in 2024) Does Newsom appoint Adam Schiff who is favored by the establishment (Pelosi)?
AZ(Gallego-D)
IN(Banks-R)
MI(Slotkin-D or Gilchrist-D)
Waiting for the following US Senators to announce they are not going to seek re-election in 2024.
DE(Carper-D)Blunt Rochester-D or Carney-D
MD(Cardin-D)Sarbanes-D or Alsobrooks-D
VT(Sanders-I)Balint-D,Gray-D or Zuckerman-D
Ben Cardin(MD) is better off retiring from the US Senate in 2030 so Wes Moore will replace him.
Wes Moore will complete his 2nd term as MD Governor in 2030 assuming he is not an occupant of the White House or a Democrat is in the White House after 2028 running for a 2nd term in 2032. Wes Moore gets elected to the US Senate in 2030 then runs for POTUS in 2036.
John Fetterman's PA US Senate successors.
1)Lt Governor Austin Davis. Davis will become the 1st black US Senator from PA if he is the Democratic nominee. Davis could also be the next Governor of PA.
2)US Representative Chris Deluzio. Deluzio represents Conor Lamb’s old US House District. Deluzio has the same background as Lamb(Military Veteran) but is more progressive than Lamb. Deluzio is the deputy whip of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. If Deluzio decides to run for statewide office, Conor Lamb has an opportunity to take back his old US House seat based in SWPA.
3)US Representative Summer Lee. Lee will become the 1st black female US Senator from PA.
4)Philadelphia Area US Representative Brendan Boyle.
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