nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 NY-25 US House Special Election(RIP Louise Slaughter)
Former NY Lt Governor and Rochester,NY Mayor Robert Duffy-D
Current Rochester,NY Mayor Lovely Warren-D
New PA-14 and PA-17- Could Jason Altmire run in one of those districts?
The district that Connor Lamb does not run in.
2018 MS US Senate Special Election- McDaniel-R vs Childers-D????
Had McDaniel-R defeated Cochran-R in the Republican primary in 2014, would Childers-D have defeated McDaniel-R in the November General Election or was the 2014 Republican wave too big for Childers-D to overcome?
Childers or Moore would be winnable Democratic candidates for the 2018 MS US Senate Special Election.
PA-18 results- 95 percent of the votes have been counted- Lamb is leading by a .5 percent margin.
22 percent swing toward the Democrats.
PA-18 Special Election results- 83 percent of the votes have been counted-
Lamb-D is leading by a 2.5 percent margin.
2018 PA-18 US House Election winner.
If Conor Lamb-D wins tonight- he would likely run for re-election in PA-14 or PA-17 against Rothfuss-R.
The new PA-14/PA-17 was formerly represented by the late Jack Murtha. Would Conor Lamb be another Jack Murtha?
Could Democrats win a US Senate seat in SC in the near future?
Graham-R loses in the Republican primary to an arch conservative.
Democrats nominate Stephen Benjamin- current mayor of Columbia,SC.
Benjamin is a popular and charismatic African American mayor of a large city in SC.
SC is less Republican than AL,MS,and LA.
2020 will be the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
2018
10 Democratic incumbent US Senators up for re-election in 2018 are from States Trump carried in 2016
FL-Nelson-D
IN-Donnelly-D
MI-Stabenow-D
MO-McCaskill-D
MT-Tester-D
ND-Heitkamp-D
OH-Brown-D
PA-Casey-D
WV-Manchin-D
WI-Baldwin-D
Out of those 10, 5 of those States Trump carried by a double digit margin
IN,MO,MT,ND,and WV.
Democrats could hold onto MT but lose IN,MO,ND,and WV and pick up AZ and NV- Republican held seats in states Trump narrowly won or lost in 2018. -2D is a worse case scenario for Democrats in 2018. 47D 53R
2020
1 Democratic incumbent US Senator up for re-election in 2020 are from State Trump will carry in 2020
AL-Jones-D
Democrats have a 50-50 chance of holding onto AL
Democrats will pick up Republican held seats in AZ(special election to replace McCain-R),CO,GA and NC- States Trump will lose or narrowly win in 2020.
Democrats could pick up ME if Collins-R retires or loses in the primary and MT if Bullock-D runs.
Democrats will have a net gain of 3 to 6 seats in 2020.
2018 US House Election- How many seats will Democrats pick up?
1)AZ-2 1
2)CA-10 2
3)CA-21
4)CA-25 3
5)CA-39 4
6)CA-45
7)CA-48 5
8)CA-49 6
9)CO-6 7
10)FL-26 8
11)FL-27 9
12)GA-6
13)IL-6 10
14)IL-12 11
15)IL-13
16)IA-1 12
17)IA-3
18)KS-2
19)KS-3
20)KY-6
21)ME-2
22)MI-6
23)MI-8
24)MI-11 13
25)MN-2 14
26)MN-3 15
27)MT-AL
28)NE-2 16
29)NJ-2 17
30)NJ-7
31)NJ-11 18
32)NY-11
33)NY-19 19
34)NY-22. 20
35)NY-24
36)NC-9
37)NC-13
38)OH-12
39)PA-1 21
40)PA-5 22
41)PA-6 23
42)PA-7 24
43)PA-10
44)PA-17 25
45)PA-18 26
46)TX-7 27
47)TX-23 28
48)TX-32
49)UT-4
50)VA-2
51)VA-5
52)VA-7
53)VA-10 29
54)WA-5
55)WA-8 30
Democrats will pick up between 30 to 55 seats.
2018 US Senate Elections vs 2020 US Senate Elections- vulnerable Democratic/Republican seats
2018
Vulnerable Democratic seats
FL-if Scott-R runs.
IN
MO
MT
ND
OH
WV
Vulnerable Republican Seats
AZ
MS Special
NV
TN
TX.
2020
Vulnerable Democratic seats
AL
NH if Sununu-R runs
Vulnerable Republican Seats
AK if Berkowitz or Begich -D runs.
AZ Special.
CO
GA
IA
ME if Collins-R retires or loses in the Republican primary.
MT if Bullock-D runs.
NC
TX
There are more vulnerable Republican held seats in 2020 than Democratic held seats in 2018.
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