nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalWhich TX Democrat is likely to unseat Cruz in 2024?
Scott Kelly?
The Castro Twins?
Colin Allred?
Democrats could actually end up with 54 US Senate seats after 2022 if WI,NC, and OH is included.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)MD(Van Hollen-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
I did not include FL because Rubio is not that unpopular like Johnson is in WI. In NC and OH the Republican nominees are pretty weak.
The 1st,2nd,3rd,4th and 5th most Democratic state in the south is
VA,GA,NC,FL and TX or
VA,GA,NC,TX and FL.
US Senate Elections in the states that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a solid to slight margin.
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)VT(Welch-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)NY(Schumer-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
The 51st and 52nd US Senate seat the Democrats will get from the 2022 elections is GA and WI.
Democrats are going to win
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
Democrats will have 50 US Senate seats after 2022 without GA, 51 with GA.
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)CA(Padilla-D)
41)VT(Welch-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D) 1/2023 runoff.
Democratic Nominee for NY-3rd CD should be Biaggi or Lafazan.
Both of these candidates have legislative experience.
Biaggi serves in the NY State Senate.
Lafazan serves in the Nassau County Legislature.
Biaggi represents the Bronx/Westchester area which was added to the NY-3 during the 2022 redistricting by the NY State Legislature. There is a chance that the Bronx/Westchester area will not be in NY-3.
The 2022 US Senate Elections in the states that the Democrats will win are in the Biden 2020 states.
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
The most likely outcome for the 2022 US Senate Election is Democrats trading GA for PA and WI.
Democrats will wiIn
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
In GA, Warnock has to get over 50 percent of the popular vote in order to avoid the 1/2023 runoff. The 1/2023 runoff election is going to be very close like the 2020 GA US Senate Election Runoff.
2022 Maryland Congressional Redistring gave safer Democratic districts to
MD-4 Anthony Brown-D
MD-7 Kweisi Mfume-D
MD-8 Jamie Raskin-D
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