nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 AZ US Senate Race-Sinema-D is running.
A matchup between Sinema-D vs Flake-R is a Tossup Republican unless 2018 is a Democratic wave then it is a Tossup Democratic.
If Flake-R loses in the primary to Ward-R, the race becomes a Lean Democratic Takeover.
Rosen-NV and Sinema-AZ gives Democrats 50 seats assuming Nelson-FL,Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,Heitkamp-ND,Brown-OH,Manchin-WV,and Baldwin-WI win re-election.
Winning political party in the states 2020 US Senate Election states 2020 US Presidential Election.
AL-Moore-R
AK-Sullivan-R
AZ Special -The political party that wins the US Presidential Election in AZ will also win the US Senate Election in AZ.
AR-Cotton-R
CO-Hickenlooper-D or Perlmutter-D +1D
DE-Coons-D
GA-Perdue-R
ID-Risch-R
IL-Durbin-D
IA-Ernst-R
KS-Roberts-R
KY-McConnell-R
LA-Cassidy-R
ME-Democrats chances of winning the US Senate Race in ME improves if Collins-R retires or loses in the primary.
MA-Markey-D
MI-Peters-D
MN-Franken-D
MS-Cochran-R
MT-Daines-R
NE-Sasse-R
NH-Shaheen-D
NJ-Booker-D or Oliver-D
NM-Udall-D
NC-Tillis-R wins only if Trump/Pence-R wins NC.
OK-Inhofe-R
OR-Merkley-D
RI-Reed-D
SC-Graham-R
SD-Rounds-R
TN-Alexander-R
TX-Cornyn-R
VA-Warner-D
WV-Capito-R
WY-Enzi-R
Democrats could pick up 4 seats in 2020
CO
ME-if Collins-R is not the Republican nominee
AZ-if Democrats win AZ at the Presidential level.
NC-if Democrats win NC at the Presidential level.
2018 US Senate Election-Which vulnerable US Senate incumbent is more likely to lose?
The Republican incumbents
AZ-Flake-R/if Stanton-D,Sinema-D,or Kelly-D runs.
NV-Heller-R
The Democratic incumbents
FL-Nelson-D/if Scott-R runs.
IN-Donnelly-D
MO-McCaskill-D
MT-Tester-D
ND-Heitkamp-D/if Cramer-R runs.
OH-Brown-D
WV-Manchin-D
2018 Colorado Governors Race-Ex-US Sen.Gary Hart has just endorsed ex-State Sen. Michael Johnston
Johnston has also been endorsed by ex Denver Mayor Wellington Webb.
Who is the front runner in the Democratic primary-Johnston-who has received high profile endorsements or Polis-who has high personal wealth.
The Turtle has made Trump mad.
The Turtle said Trump does not understand how politics works regarding the US Senate's failure to repeal and replace Obamacare.
2020 Colorado US Senate Election-Will Gardner(R-CO) be more vulnerable than Heller(R-NV)is in 2018?
Heller (R-NV) is facing a tough primary challenge from Tarkanian-R and a tough general election challenge from Rosen-D. Democrats will pick up the US Senate Seat in NV in 2018.
Gardner (R-CO) has a 24 percent approval rating according to PPP. He is also trailing Democratic challenger by 5 point margin 46-41. CO Democrats have plenty of candidates that could challenge and defeat Gardner in 2020.
Hickenlooper,Perlmutter,both of Hickenlooper's Lt Governors(Garcia or Lynne),2018 Democratic candidates for Governor (Kennedy or Johnston), or Hancock
2018,2020,and 2022 US Senate Election-Republican held seats that is likely to go Democratic.
2018
NV (Heller-R) vs Rosen-D
AZ (Flake-R) vs Stanton-D
Democrats are highly vulnerable in IN,MO,MT,ND,and WV(-3D) 45D 55R
2020
CO (Gardner-R) vs Perlmutter-D
NC (Tillis-R) vs Ross-D
AZ Special-Sinema-D
GA (Perdue-R) vs Barrow-D
IA (Ernst-R) vs Loebsack-D
ME-if Collins-R retires
No Democratic Held US Senate Seats in 2020 that are highly vulnerable. 51D 49R
2022
FL (Rubio-R) vs Crist-D
NC (Burr-R) vs Stein-D
PA(Toomey-R) vs Boyle-D
WI (Johnson-R) vs Pocan-D
No Democratic Held US Senate Seats in 2022 that are highly vulnerable. 55D 45R
2020 US Senate Election-Republican held US Senate seats from Most Vulnerable to Least Vulnerable.
1)CO (Gardner-R) has a 24 percent approval rating post Trumpcare vote. Plenty of top tier Democratic candidates that could challenge Gardner-Hickenlooper,Perlmutter,Johnston,Kennedy,Garcia,Lynne,or Hancock. Lean Democratic
2)NC (Tillis-R) The other NC Republican US Senator Burr-R won re-election in 2016 by a 6 percent margin. Tillis-R is less popular than Burr-R and Democrats could win NC at the Presidential level in 2020 helping the Democratic US Senate nominee. Tossup Democratic
3)AZ Special -Republicans will nominate a Tea Partier and Democrats could win AZ at the Presidential level in 2020 helping the Democratic US Senate nominee. Tossup Democratic
4)ME-if Collins-R is not the Republican nominee. Tossup Democratic
4)MT (Daines-R)if Bullock-D runs. Tossup Republican
4)GA (Perdue-R)Lean Republican
5)IA (Ernst-R)Lean Republican
6)TX (Cornyn-R)Lean Republican
7)KY (McConnell-R)Likely Republican
8)AK (Sullivan-R)Solid Republican
9)LA (Cassidy-R)Solid Republican
10)MS -Cochran-R or Bryant-R. Solid Republican
11)SC (Graham-R)Solid Republican
12)MT (Daines-R)if Bullock-D does not run. Solid Republican
13)TN-Alexander-R or Halsam-R. Solid Republican
14)WV-Capito-R. Solid Republican
15)ME-if Collins-R is the Republican nominee. Solid Republican
16)AR-Cotton-R. Solid Republican
17)AL-Strange-R,Moore-R,or Brooks-R. Solid Republican
18)KS-Roberts-R or Jenkins-R. Solid Republican
19)NE-Sasse-R. Solid Republican
20)SD-Rounds-R Solid Republican
21)OK-Inhofe-R or Fallin-R. Solid Republican
22)ID-Risch-R or Little-R. Solid Republican
23)WY-Enzi-R,Lummis-R,or Cheney-R. Solid Republican
2018 US Senate Election-Republican held seats.
AZ (Flake-R) If Flake-R loses in a primary to Ward-R, Which announced Democratic AZ US Senate candidate has a better chance at defeating Ward-R? Abboud-D?,Moss-D?,or Russell-D?
Stanton,Sinema,Kelly,or Friese could defeat Ward-R in the November General Election if they were to run.
MS (Wicker-R)Safe Republican
NE (Fischer-R)Safe Republican
NV (Heller-R) vulnerable in primary against Tarkanian-R and vulnerable in general against Rosen.
TN (Corker-R)Corker-R could run for Governor and Halsam-R could run for the US Senate-Safe Republican. If Corker-R and Halsam-R don't run, Could the Likely Democratic nominee(Mackler-D or Berke-D)stand a chance of Winning?
TX (Cruz-R) is likely to defeat O'Rourke-D by a single digit margin.
UT (Hatch-R) Could Democrats win a three way race between Hatch-R,Wilson-D,and McMullin-I?
WY (Barrasso-R)Safe Republican
2014 US Senate Election vs 2018 US Senate Election-Democratic held US Senate seats in red states.
2014-red states
AK (Begich-D)lost
AR (Pryor-D)lost
LA (Landrieu-D)lost
MT (OPEN-Baucus/Walsh-D)lost
SD (OPEN-Johnson-D)lost
WV (OPEN-Rockefeller-D)lost
2014-purple states
NC (Hagan-D)lost
VA (Warner-D)won
2014-weak blue states
CO (Udall-D)lost
IA (OPEN-Harkin-D)lost
MI (OPEN-Levin-D)won
MN (Franken-D)won
NH (Shaheen-D)won
2018-red states
IN (Donnelly-D)
MO (McCaskill-D)
MT (Tester-D)
ND (Heitkamp-D)
OH (Brown-D)
WV (Manchin-D)
2018-purple states
FL (Nelson-D)
ME (King-I/D)
MI (Stabenow-D)
MN (Klobuchar-D)
PA (Casey-D)
WI (Baldwin-D)
2018-weak blue states
NM (Heinrich-D)
VA (Kaine-D)
In 2018-Democrats could lose IN and/or MO.
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