Manchin is predicting the Democrats will pick up PA or OH.
PA and OH have strong Democratic and weak Republican nominee but PA is a purple state while OH is a red state. The 50th Democratic US Senate seat could be NC. OPEN seat in a weak red state. Ted Budd(R-NC) does not have the Incumbency advantage that Ron Johnson(R-WI) has.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)IL(Duckworth-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)VT(Welch-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)
54)NC(Beasley-D)

US Senator Sodomy lost re-election in 2006 by an 18 percent margin.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)IL(Duckworth-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)VT(Welch-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)
54)NC(Beasley-D)

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)IL(Duckworth-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)VT(Welch-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)
54)NC(Beasley-D)

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)IL(Duckworth-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)VT(Welch-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
Tossup
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)
54)NC(Beasley-D)

Democrats are favored to win WA(Murray-D),CO(Bennet-D),NH(Hassan-D),AZ(Kelly-D),and PA(Fetterman-D) by at least a high single digit margin. GA(Warnock-D) and NV(Cortez Masto-D) are seats that Democrats will narrowly win. Winning WA,CO,NH,AZ,PA,GA,and NV will put Democrats at 51 seats. WI(Barnes-D),NC(Beasley-D),and OH(Ryan-D) will go either way.
HI(Schatz-D)37
MD(Van Hollen-D)38
NY(Schumer-D)39
CA(Padilla-D)40
IL(Duckworth-D)41
OR(Wyden-D)42
CT(Blumenthal-D)43
VT(Welch-D)44
WA(Murray-D)45
CO(Bennet-D)46
NH(Hassan-D)47
AZ(Kelly-D)48
PA(Fetterman-D)49
GA(Warnock-D)50
NV(Cortez Masto-D)51
WI(Barnes-D)52
NC(Beasley-D)53
OH(Ryan-D)54

Solid D
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)OR(Wyden-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)VT(Welch-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
Likely D
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
Lean D
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
Slight D
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

AZ(Ruben Gallego-D)
CA(Ro Khanna-D)
DE(Lisa Blunt Rochester-D)
HI(Tulsi Gabbard-D)
ME(Jared Golden-D)
MD(Jamie Raskin-D)
VT(Becca Ballint-D)

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)OR(Wyden-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)VT(Welch-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)NV(Cortez Masto-D)