nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US House Election-Republican held US House Seats in +D PVI CD
1)CA-21(Valdao-R) +5D 1
2)CO-6 (Coffman-R) +2D 2
3)FL-26(Curbelo-R) +6D 3
4)FL-27(OPEN- Row Lehtinin-R) +5D 4
5)IA-1(Blum-R) +1D 5
6)MN-3(Paulsen-R) +1D 6
7)NY-24(Katko-R) +3D 7
8)VA-10(Comstock-R)+1D 8
Republican held US House Seats in EVEN PVI CD
9)CA-10(Denham-R) 9
10)CA-25(Knight-R) 10
11)CA-39(Royce-R) 11
12)WA-8(OPEN-Reichert-R) 12
Republican held US House Seats in +1 to+4R PVI CD
13)AZ-2(OPEN-McSally-R) +1R 13
14)CA-45(Walters-R) +3R 14
15)CA-48(Rohrabacher-R) +4R 15
16)CA-49(Issa-R) +1R 16
17)FL-25(Diaz Balart-R) +4R
18)IL-6(Roskam-R) +2R 17
19)IL-13(Davis-R) +3R 18
20)IA-3(Young-R) +1R 19
21)KS-3(Yoder-R) +4R 20
22)ME-2(Poliquin-R) +2R 21
23)MI-6(Upton-R) +4R
24)MI-8(Bishop-R) +4R 22
25)MI-11(OPEN-Trot-R) +4R 23
26)MN-2(Lewis-R) +2R 24
27)NE-2(Bacon-R) +4R 25
28)NJ-2(OPEN-LoBiondo-R) +1R 26
29)NJ-3(MacArthur-R) +2R
30)NJ-7(Lance-R) +3R 27
31)NJ-11(Frelinghuysen-R) +3R 28
32)NY-2(King-R) +3R
33)NY-11(Donovan-R) +3R 29
34)NY-19(Faso-R) +2R 30
35)NY-21(Stefanik-R) +4R
36)OH-10(Turner-R) +4R
37)PA-6(Costello-R) +2R 30
38)PA-7(Meehan-R) +1R 31
39)PA-8(Fitzpatrick-R) +2R 32
40)PA-15(OPEN-Dent-R) +4R 33
41)TX-23(Hurd-R) +1R 34
42)VA-2(Taylor-R) +3R 35
43)WA-3(Herrara-R) +4R
Democrats will pick up at least 35 seats in the US House.
2018 US Senate Election-number of ways Democrats can regain control of the US Senate in 2018.
1)Hold onto every single Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 and pick up the most vulnerable Republican held US Senate seats in AZ and NV.
2)Hold onto every single Democratic held US Senate seat except for IN or MO. Pick up AZ and NV, Hope for a special election in AZ-Democrats could pick up 2 AZ US Senate Seats in 2018.
3)Hold onto every single Democratic held US Senate seat except for IN and MO. Pick up AZ,NV,and TX, Hope for a special election in AZ
2016 US Presidential and US Senate Race-voters voted straight party line. If this occurs in 2020,
AL-Jones-D loses re-election.
AK-Sullivan-R wins re-election.
AZ special-If Trump-R wins AZ again, McSally-R is favored to win but Democrats have a chance against Ward-R. If Trump-R loses in AZ, Democratic Pickup.
AR-Cotton-R wins re-election.
CO-Gardner-R loses re-election.
DE-Coons-D wins re-election.
GA-Perdue-R wins re-election.
ID-Risch-R wins re-election.
IL-Durbin-D wins re-election.
IA-Ernst-R wins re-election.
KS-Roberts-R wins re-election.
KY-McConnell-R wins re-election.
LA-Cassidy-R wins re-election.
ME-Democratic Pickup if Collins-R loses in the primary. A top tier Democrat needs to be nominated for Collins-R to be in the similar situation as Chaffee was in 2006.
MA-Markey-D wins re-election.
MI-If Trump-R wins MI again, Peters-D could loses re-election to a top tier Republican-Snyder-R otherwise Peters-D wins re-election.
MN-Smith-D wins re-election.
MS-Cochran-R wins re-election.
MT-Daines-R wins re-election.
NE-Sasse-R wins re-election.
NH-Shaheen-D wins re-election.
NJ-Booker-D wins re-election.
NM-Udall-D wins re-election.
NC-If Trump-R wins NC again,Tillis-R wins re-election. If Trump-R loses in NC, Tillis-R loses re-election.
OK-Inhofe-R wins re-election.
OR-Merkley-D wins re-election.
RI-Reed-D wins re-election.
SC-Graham-R wins re-election.
SD-Rounds-R wins re-election.
TN-Alexander-R wins re-election.
TX-Cornyn-R wins re-election.
VA-Warner-D wins re-election.
WV-Moore Capito-R wins re-election.
WY-Enzi-R wins re-election.
In 2018-Democrats hold onto FL(Nelson-D),IN(Donnelly-D),MN(Smith-D),MO(McCaskill-D),MT(Tester-D),NJ(Menendez-D),ND(Heitkamp-D),OH(Brown-D),PA(Casey-D),VA(Kaine-D),WV(Manchin-D),and WI(Baldwin-D) and pick up AZ(Sinema-D) and NV(Rosen-D) 51D 49R
In 2020-Democrats lose AL(Jones-D),hold onto MI(Peters-D),MN(Smith-D),NH(Shaheen-D),and VA(Warner-D) and pick up AZ,CO,ME,and NC. 55D 45R
2017 AL US Senate Election- Is Roy Moore-R slandering military voters?
Roy Moore-R has refused to concede to Doug Jones-D claiming that the oversea military ballots have yet to be counted. Does Roy Moore-R actually believe people who serve in the military will overwhelmingly vote for any Republican even a bad candidate like Roy Moore-R
2018 US Senate Election-maximum number of seats Democrats can have after 2018.
Democrats win
HI-Hirono-D 24D unopposed
VT-Sanders-I/D 25D No Republican challenger
WA-Cantwell-D 26D No Republican challenger
CA-Feinstein-D vs. DeLeon-D 27D 2 Democrats facing each other in November
NY-Gillibrand-D 28D
RI-Whitehouse-D 29D
DE-Carper-D 30D
MN-Klobuchar-D 31D
MA-Warren-D 32D
MD-Cardin-D 33D
CT-Murphy-D 34D
NM-Heinrich-D 35D
NJ-Democratic Primary Winner-D 36D
MI-Stabenow-D 37D
VA-Kaine-D 38D
ME-King-I/D 39D
PA-Casey-D 40D
WI-Baldwin-D 41D
MT-Tester-D 42D
MN-Smith-D 43D
OH-Brown-D 44D
ND-Heitkamp-D 45D
FL-Nelson-D 46D assuming Scott-R is the Republican Nominee.
WV-Manchin-D 47D
NV-Rosen-D 48D
AZ-Sinema-D 49D
IN-Donnelly-D 50D
MO-McCaskill-D 51D
TN-Bredensen-D 52D
TX-O'Rourke-D 53D
If there are 2018 special election in AZ-Kelly-D 54D
Democrats could get 60 seats in the US Senate after 2020 if Democrats win in
2018
AZ-Sinema-D 12D
CA-Feinstein-D 13D
CT-Murphy-D 14D
DE-Carper-D 15D
FL-Nelson-D 16D
HI-Hirono-D 17D
IN-Donnelly-D 18D
ME-King-I/D 19D
MD-Cardin-D 20D
MA-Warren-D 21D
MI-Stabenow-D 22D
MN-Klobuchar-D 23D
MO-McCaskill-D 24D
MT-Tester-D 25D
NV-Rosen-D 26D
NJ-Democratic Primary Winner-D 27D
NM-Heinrich-D 28D
NY-Gillibrand-D 29D
ND-Heitkamp-D 30D
OH-Brown-D 31D
PA-Casey-D 32D
RI-Whitehouse-D 33D
VT-Sanders-I/D 34D
VA-Kaine-D 35D
WA-Cantwell-D 36D
WV-Manchin-D 37D
WI-Baldwin-D 38D
2018 and 2020
MN-Smith-D 39D
2018 or 2020
AZ-Gallegos-D 40D
2020
CO-Hancock-D 41D
DE-Coons-D 42D
GA-Reed-D 43D
IL-Durbin-D 44D
IA-Loebsack-D 45D
KY-Beshear-D 46D
MA-Markey-D 47D
MI-Peters-D 48D
MT-Bullock-D 49D
NH-Shaheen-D 50D
NJ-Booker-D 51D
NM-Udall-D 52D
NC-Foxx-D 53D
OR-Merkley-D 54D
RI-Reed-D 55D
TX-Castro-D 56D
VA-Warner-D 57D
Bredesen-TN and O'Rourke-TX need to win in 2018 59D
Jones-AL needs to win in 2020. 60D
Jones-AL needs to win in 2020. 58D
Walker-I runs in AK in 2020 and decides to caucus with the Democrats. 59D
Collins-ME loses in the Republican primary. Democrats nominate Pingree-D 60D
2018 Gubernatorial Election.
Democratic Governorship not up for re-election in 2018
1)DE-Carney-D
2)LA-Bel Edwards-D
3)MT-Bullock-D
4)NJ-Murphy-D
5)NC-Cooper-D
6)VA-Northam-D
7)WA-Inslee-D
Democrats favored to win 2018 Gubernatorial Elections in
8)CA-Newsom-D
9)CO-Kennedy-D
10)CT-Drew-D
11)FL-Graham-D
12)HI-Hanabusa-D
13)IL-Pritzker-D
14)MI-Whitmer-D
15)MN-Otto-D
16)NM-Lujan Grisham-D
17)NY-Cuomo-D
18)OR-Brown-D
19)PA-Wolf-D
20)RI-Raimondo-D
Democrats have 50-50 chance of winning Governorships in
21)AZ-Farley-D
22)KS-Brewer-D
23)ME-Mills-D
24)MD-Baker-D
25)NV-Sisolak-D
26)NH-Marchand-D
27)OH-Codray-D
28)TN-Dean-D
29)WI-Wachs-D
2018 US House Election-Democrats guide to a majority.
Holding onto MN-1,NV-3,and NH-1
Picking up
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-21
4)CA-25
5)CA-39
6)CA-45
7)CA-48
8)CA-49
9)CO-6
10)FL-26
11)FL-27
12)GA-6
13)IL-6
14)IL-12
15)IL-13
16)IA-1
17)IA-3
18)KS-2
19)KS-3
20)KY-6
21)ME-2
22)MI-8
23)MI-11
24)MN-2
25)MN-3
26)MT-AL
27)NE-2
28)NJ-2
29)NJ-7
30)NJ-11
31)NM-2
32)NY-11
33)NY-19
34)NY-22
35)NY-24
36)NC-9
37)PA-6
38)PA-7
39)PA-8
40)PA-15
41)PA-16
42)PA-18-Special Election
43)TX-7
44)TX-23
45)TX-32
46)UT-4
47)VA-2
48)VA-5
49)VA-7
50)VA-10
51)WA-8
52)KS-4
53)OH-12-Special Election
54)SC-5
55)TX-27
56)AZ-8- Special Election
2018 MS US Senate Election- if former MS AG Mike Moore-D runs and wins the DEM nomination and
On the Republican side- incumbent US Senator Roger Wicker-R gets Lugarized in the Republican primary by Chris McDaniel. McDaniel makes plenty of gaffes on the campaign trails.
Could MS US Senate seat be a Democratic pickup like the AL US Senate seat?
Increase voter turnout in the African American electorate helped Jones-D win AL in 2017
Could the same thing happen for 2018 Democratic US Senate Incumbents or Challengers like Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Brown-OH,Bredesen-TN, and O'Rourke-TX?
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