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crazytown

crazytown's Journal
crazytown's Journal
September 4, 2019

Biden: "I had more black support in South Carolina than anybody"

Joe Biden took questions from black reporters for 90 minutes. He did not disappoint.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/27/biden-black-reporters-1476637

What about Kamala and Cory?

In poll after poll, black voters prefer Biden over anyone else. But why him over, say, Kamala Harris or Cory Booker, both of whom are African American?

Biden said he doesn’t know ... but he framed his lengthy record as both good news and bad news. “People know me, or at least they think they know me,” Biden said. “I think after all this time, they think they have a sense of what my character is and who I am — warts and all.”

He said it’s tough to explain why black voters prefer him in such high numbers over his opponents but noted he’s never felt uncomfortable being in a black community.

By the way, that doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way,” he added. “You can go back and look: When Barack clobbered me in the campaign, you know, I more black support in South Carolina than anybody, including him. I got blown out in Iowa and all of a sudden everything changed. Same thing could happen.”


Public Policy Polling, August 13, 2007
Overall: HRC 36%, Obama 33%, Edwards 13%, Biden 3%
AA: Obama 55%, HRC 29&, Edwards 1%, Biden 0%
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_SC_Release_081507.pdf

Pew Research, December 3, 2007




EDITED - to include electability table
https://www.people-press.org/2007/12/03/democratic-primary-preview-iowa-new-hampshire-south-carolina/
September 3, 2019

Latest from NOAA: Dorian has began to move; strengthening; may not make landfall in US.

After remaining stationary for 12 hours, Dorian has began to move at 1 mph NW. Sustained winds have strengthened back to 120 mph. Current median projection avoids landfall in US.

.
https://www.noaa.gov/dorian

September 2, 2019

The projected path of Hurricane Dorian is shifting closer to the Florida Coast.

Hurricane Dorian is going to come very, very close to Florida
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-is-going-to-come-very-very-close-to-florida/



Listening to a BBC interview with NOAA official, each revision over the last 12 hours has been moved further left.
September 2, 2019

The Democratic Winner of the Iowa Caucuses goes on the win The Nomination.

Gore (2000), Kerry (2004), Obama (2008), Clinton (2016), and, in earlier times, Carter (1976) and Mondale (1984). 1992 (Harkin) was not contested: 2nd place was Tsongas with 4%. The only significant exception was Gephardt (1988). Following the caucuses, Dukakis and Gore co-ordinated to crush his candidacy with negative ads.

September 2, 2019

Video shows Trump golfing before Hurricane Dorian arrives in U.S.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1167870667108143104
Video appears to show Trump golfing in Virginia in the run-up to catastrophic Hurricane Dorian

President Donald Trump appeared to be playing golf Saturday, just days before states on the southeast coast were set to be battered by Category 5 Hurricane Dorian, which the National Hurrican Center has called catastrophic.

Official communications from the White House and statements from the president himself ahead of the weekend trip suggested that Trump would be spending his time at Camp David in Maryland monitoring and preparing for the storm.

According to press pool reports, however, Trump traveled to his Sterling, Virginia golf course Saturday morning by helicopter from Camp David. Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham reportedly told reporters that someone from FEMA was briefing him on the hurricane every hour.

Trump departed the course at 2:40 PM, according to his schedule, and received his scheduled full briefing at Camp David when he returned.
September 1, 2019

BetOnline: Elizabeth Warren overtakes Joe Biden as Favorite

Elizabeth Warren has surpassed Joe Biden and taken over as the betting favorite to be the 2020 Presidential candidate in the Democratic nomination odds.


https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-democratic-nominee-favorite/
August 31, 2019

WaPo: Why Elizabeth Warren is the one to watch

Washington Post, August 30
Rob Stutzman, GOP political consultant
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/30/why-elizabeth-warren-is-one-watch/

Why Elizabeth Warren is the one to watch
Warren is the only candidate who sounds like she might chew Trump’s leg off

(snip) Warren is hitting her stride because of two ... important traits: style and substance. We’re used to politicians being good at one or the other; rarely do we see both.

Consider the Warren style: Chiefly, it’s fearless. She was the first candidate to call for President Trump’s impeachment (likely a key to her fundraising), and to invoke her oath and fidelity to the Constitution as the imperative to seek Trump’s removal from office. On the debate stage and at her rallies, she’s pugnacious and has modulated her voice to be emphatic without screaming. “I’m a fighter” is one of her slogans, and it’s a credible one, especially when she implores those in the audience to “get up off [their] butt and volunteer!” She just doesn’t just want to fight; she wants to lead a fight.

All this is catnip for many rank-and-file Democrats, but don’t discount the potential for her to attract moderates who are looking for someone who can go toe to toe with Trump on a debate stage. More than one Democratic voter has mused to me that Warren is the only candidate who sounds like she might chew Trump’s leg off onstage. It’s a vivid contrast to Joe Biden, who at times seems to be observing the debates as much as participating in them. If Democrats come to define electability as a measure of who can take on a bully, Warren’s stock will rise.

Warren’s substance, meanwhile, is her killer app. Her proposals range from an “ultra-millionaire tax” to breaking up big tech companies to forgiving student loans; the decision to flood the zone with big and bold substance has become definitional. And, in a race in which Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) has had more positions on health care than toppings on a supreme pizza, Warren has emerged as a candidate of deep convictions.

So can Warren win this nomination? Certainly. Does that leave the Democrats with a nominee who can beat Trump? That’s not so certain.


I would say there's at least one other candidate up for a little dental engineered amputation - Senator Harris.
August 30, 2019

September Debate candidates arrangement (abc)



Allocated according to an average of the last ten qualifying polls.
August 28, 2019

Polls: A reminder from 2007/08



Obama was 20 points behind right up to the Iowa Caucuses. On election night he said "You know, they said this day would never come".

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