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dutch777

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Member since: Sun Dec 15, 2019, 05:48 PM
Number of posts: 1,576

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Thoughts on how the Ukraine end game plays out if RU stops/ retreats?

Assuming Putin at some point accepts he has been fought to a virtual standstill and RU does not have the blood and treasure necessary to continue to prosecute the war, AND he doesn't go nuclear and just level Kyiv and some other major cities and strongholds, how does he back out and what does he get out of it from a sanctions' relief standpoint and politically?

My concern is that if things stay conventional and there is some amount of pullback to pre-war borders, with likely exception of Crimea and the Donbass, the EU will be more than happy to lift sanctions, not require any reparations and let Putin pretty much alone if they can still get gas and oil. I'd like to hope that I am wrong, and sanctions will stay in place until there is some reassurance we aren't all here again in some RU border country in the future and stiff reparations are put in place to help Ukraine rebuild, but I am not optimistic. Wondering what fellow DUers think?

IT Army for Ukraine

I have to give the Ukrainians a lot of credit on a lot of fronts-- their military tenacity against a theoretically superior foe, their use of social media, compassion toward POWs, trying to keep the nuke reactors in SAFE mode in the middle of a war, political leadership with a backbone and the list goes on and on. The one thing that I found interesting is their enlistment of this so called IT Army to basically crowd source hacking and other actions via the internet against Russia and Belarus in an organized and targeted way. The article I read said it was being organized through the Telegram platform and directed by the minister of IT in The Ukraine government. Per the article, 300,000 people worldwide have signed up and while not all are highly accomplished hackers, it's a pretty impressive show of support from the tech-o-sphere. So far they have messed with various RU government departments as well as the Belarus railway system. If we can't impose a No Fly zone or put boots on the ground, this is a way to take some of the pain of war home to RU proper. Something that will be hard to hide from the average Russian or Belarussian.

The downside to this is that RU has significant hacking capabilities of its own. And while the IT Army is globally diverse, RU may well unleash it's own capabilities against the EU, US and others allied against RU in this fight. Certainly nuclear war would be worse, but turning the lights out or shutting off the water in places will also be very bad if not as catastrophic. I guess my point with all of this is while we think the war is half the globe away, it could come home to many of us all to soon in some way. I guess we will find out how good our firewalls and cybersecurity is.

Does it seem FL, the Dakotas and others host superspreader events and then send the Covid home?

I look at these states that have been more open or now reopened probably prematurely and realized, they kick start their economy on the backs of non-locals and end up sending the infected home to another state. Not any way to control a pandemic.

Anyone know how the hospitals in TX are doing given water supply issues?

Having run a hospital facilities group for years before my retirement, the one thing we dreaded and had almost no good mitigation plan for was losing the utility water supply for more than a few hours. We had a store of potable water in water barrels but it was less than a day's worth of total water usage. And normal daily usage was anticipated to as much as triple in a major event, like an earthquake. And there was no good way to supply the kind of bulk water needed to supply the internal plumbing system so that sinks and toilets would work. There were three main supplies from the utility to the complex and hooking up tanker trucks was not a design feature of the building plumbing plus even if we created it, it introduced a point of possible system contamination. Without the ability to scrub/hand wash adequately medical practice could come to the point of "unsafe to operate" the majority of the hospital very quickly. Hand sanitizer is okay for routine cleaning when there is no blood or other soil present, but is not recommended to replace full hot water flush and scrub. I suspect they have pushed off all elective procedures and routine visits to conserve but it has to be a real worry. How does a hospital boil all the water it needs? I wish them the best in a very dire situation.

Question for those in the know TX. Who do the Dems have poised to run against Abbott in 2022?

We have an opportunity presented by this power fiasco, not to mention poor handling of Covid and other things. I am hoping we can take TX to the blue side again.

Our forefathers were incredibly wise.

Having more free time than is justifiable as leisure, I chose to read texts based on the founding of our great national enterprise... a democratic republic. As a Pennsylvanian originally I have always been much enamored of Benjamin Franklin and his place in our national history. His autobiography led me to the history of his time in Paris securing us much needed funding, materiel and military knowledge in our revolt against the British. And that has now led me to read the Federalist Papers. In these trying times and after watching the first day of IMP 2.0 for Mr. Trump, I find this excerpt from the Federalist Papers No.1 by Alexander Hamilton in October 1787 as amazingly pertinent to our recent and current times.

"And yet however just these sentiments will be allowed to be, we have already sufficient indications, that it will happen in this as in all former cases of great national discussion. A torrent of angry and malignant passions will be let loose. To judge from the conduct of the opposite parties, we shall be led to conclude, that they will mutually hope to evince the justness of their opinions, and to increase the number of their converts by the loudness of their declamations, and by the bitterness of their invectives. An enlightened zeal for the energy and efficiency of government will be stigmatised, as the off-spring of a temper fond of despotic power and hostile to the principles of liberty. An overscrupulous jealousy of danger to the rights of the people, which is more commonly the fault of the head than of the heart, will be represented as mere pretence and artifice; the bait for popularity at the expence of public good. It will be forgotten, on the one hand, that jealousy is the usual concomitant of violent love, and that the noble enthusiasm of liberty is too apt to be infected with a spirit of narrow and illiberal distrust. On the other hand, it will be equally forgotten, that the vigour of government is essential to the security of liberty; that, in the contemplation of a sound and well informed judgment, their interest can never be separated; and that a dangerous ambition more often lurks behind the specious mask of zeal for the rights of the people, than under the forbidding appearance of zeal for the firmness and efficiency of government. History will teach us, that the former has been found a much more certain road to the introduction of despotism, than the latter, and that of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics the greatest number have begun their carreer, by paying an obsequious court to the people, commencing Demagogues and ending Tyrants."


Alexander Hamilton
The Federalist No. 1, [27 October 1787] (archives.gov)


Does anyone think the amount of force on display in DC and state capitals is overdone?

Maybe it is my rose colored glasses or my fond memories of simpler times, but I am wondering how many right wing or other wingnuts there really are that want to come out and go toe to toe with a, now, educated and energized and properly equipped and prepared police presence. I have no doubt that hundreds of thousands on the internet spout off about MAGA and taking back America and whatever else and promise to show up with guns and grit to make it happen. And that even more folks are sadly ignorant of the reality of elections and true meaning of democracy and tolerate the discussion. (Hint: Sometimes your side loses even when YOU don't want that!) But how many really have the guts and wherewithal to do more than type?

But I also wonder, by putting this many National Guard and others on the street, do the wingnuts not still think they won just because they elicited this level of reaction, even if they never show up? And by that, just give them more fuel to perpetuate their evil fire? I am not saying don't push the perimeter out and not secure it with proper fencing and guard it. But something in me says this would be better if the Guard and other reinforcements were not in full view. If they are staged in parking garages and buildings proximate and can react quickly to a threat but not make it look like we are an armed camp, might that not be better? I am glad we reacted and learned, but I always worry about overreactions whether it is an international incident or a domestic one. And I really want to see this evil fire die either for lack of fuel or because we snuff it out. Curious what DUers think.

At what point can a group of citizens sue their government/ leaders for endangering their lives?

I just read several articles that said the WH Coronavirus task force has been advising the state of FL for weeks or longer that its Covid rate of infection trend line was unacceptably high AND that the state needed to take more active measures to control the spread. The state did nothing. The state refused to release the substance of the task force's advice for this period but it was discovered by others and reported.

Assuming this is all as bad as reported, at what point can families that lost loved ones recently and those infected recently sue the state/ governor for what is essentially dereliction of duty, wrongful death, pain, suffering, etc., etc.? I have to believe one of the paramount duties of government per the FL constitution is to protect health and safety. Had they no way to know of the danger, no reasonable courses of action as shown by other states/precedent, one could say it was unknowable what the result would be as bad as it is or why. But that is not the case. Just the opposite. I certainly hope DeSantis gets cashiered out like Scott Walker in WI was but this seems to need much more than simple electoral defeat to send a very needed message that there is a cost to governmental/official irresponsibility to those running the show.

Thoughts?

Thanks to all that responded. Just read that the guy (an attorney) who has been wandering around crowded beaches and bars in FL dressed as the Grim Reaper, just filed suit against DeSantis for the poor Covid response according to an article in The Guardian. Will be interesting to see where it goes!

Let's own some Republicans

After Biden takes office, maybe a week or so, perhaps he should claim vague illness and hand the reigns to VP Harris. Then President Harris after about another week does similar and hands the reigns to Nancy Pelosi. President Pelosi activates the National Guard across the country to help clean up the mess of millions of Trumpist's heads exploding. Now if only we could get Hilary in the line of succession, we could really have fun!

Let's own some Republicans

After Biden takes office, maybe a week or so, perhaps he should claim vague illness and hand the reigns to VP Harris. Then President Harris after about another week does similar and hands the reigns to Nancy Pelosi. President Pelosi activates the National Guard across the country to help clean up the mess of millions of Trumpist's heads exploding. Now if only we could get Hilary in the line of succession, we could really have fun!
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