February 21, 2020

Here's the polling for this "juggernaut" Sanders in key upcoming states

IL- 22%
Minn- 21%
NC- 23%
SC- 19%
CA-24%
TX-23%
FL- 11%

Here's what he got so far:

Iowa- 26%
NH-26%


Yes, he's leading in a lot of those polls. But a candidate getting at or below 25% in state after state isn't going to have the insurmountable delegate lead that his supporters think he will. They want you to assume he is this freight train that is growing in support. He's not. He's right where he has been all along in these polls, and everyone else is just splitting the rest too many ways.

Bernie's numbers may go up in those states in the coming weeks. Or they may not.

We can hold off the coronation for a bit.

February 21, 2020

A missed opportunity by Biden and Warren tonight in their otherwise excellent town halls:

They each should have handed a printed copy of their full medical records to Anderson/Erin and challenged Bernie to do the same.


It is a legitimate line of criticism and it would outline that Joe and Liz are being transparent.


It's what I would've advised each of them. It would've been a viral moment.

February 20, 2020

None of our candidates will beat Trump in a debate in 2020

Because Trump won't participate in any debates.


His onset of dementia is accelerating. He already sucks at debating.


There is a virtually 0% chance that Trump will agree to participate in any debates in the fall.

February 20, 2020

On delegate counts and if nobody reaches 50%+1 on first ballot in Milwaukee

The whole point of the 50%+1 rule is to reward the candidate that can build a majority coalition.

If all of our candidates are below 1,991 on the first ballot - then by definition, NOBODY has a rightful claim on the nomination. Pluralities are nice, but don't matter here.

At that point - the goal is to reward the candidate that can build a "governing coalition", much like parliamentary systems around the world. If a candidate can't negotiate and bring delegates from other candidates into their tent to get them over 1,991 - then by definition, they aren't a unifying candidate.

If you can't convince enough other Democratic delegates to get you over the top to 50%+1 - how are you going to ever get any of your program through congress?

So .. no... I agree with 2016's Bernie. You have to build a coalition that encompasses at least 50%+1 of the party to get the nomination. If you are too divisive to get any other candidates' delegates to switch to you, then you don't win.

The other five non-Bernie candidates need to stick to the model that 2016 Bernie wanted. Get a majority, not just a plurality, or start negotiating with others.

Democracy is about building majority coalitions. It's the only way any laws get passed.

The DNC rules were set before ANY candidate entered the race, and they were largely set by Bernie proxies on the committee. He must follow the rules he agreed to. "Most" delegates doesn't win - "Majority of" delegates does.

February 20, 2020

If Warren really wants to get this nomination, she has to stop being every Berner's second choice

Taking down Bloomberg is great. It also shows how she would go after Trump too. Awesome.


But the bottom line is winning the nomination. And right now, she has no real path to come in first - instead of being the second-place fall back choice for every Bernie supporter.


She needs to take some whacks at the leader now. Show us why she's the better option for the progressive wing of the party than a cranky, 78-year-old, socialist with heart disease.


I really believe that Liz Warren can be the "bridge" between the progressive and center-left wings of the party. A true unity candidate.


But she can't get there if she remains only willing to punch the center-left wing and leave Bernie untouched.


Continually being the "1b" candidate to progressives won't cut it. If you want that "1a" pole position, you have to hammer at Bernie's weaknesses now, Liz. Here's some attack lanes against Bernie that don't attack his policy positions:

1. Health. A 78-year-old heart attack victim is a risky bet.

2. Anger. Liz can be the happy warrior. Bernie is the crank.

3. DC. Bernie has spent nearly 4 decades in DC getting almost nothing accomplished. Liz has been there less than a decade, and actually accomplished things when she went after Wall Street as a member of the Obama administration.

4. Women. Liz can attract a much larger enthusiastic base of female voters than Bernie can.


Stop running to be Bernie's VP, Liz. Run to be the top name on the ticket. Bernie won't sell to the larger electorate. You just might.

February 20, 2020

I am a left-center individual

I make no bones about that.

My wife has spent her entire life as a center-right Republican. She grew up in North Dakota and it was just in her bloodstream.

While I have voted for Democrats since my first election in 1988... 2016 was the first time my wife ever voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election. 2018 was the first time she ever actively got involved in midterms campaigns and she voted Democratic up and down the ticket.

Voters like my wife are why the blue wave of 2018 happened. We flipped our red seat to blue in 2018 on the votes of college-educated moderate former-Republicans.

My wife will vote for any Democrat on that stage last night, with the exception of Bernie Sanders. He is a non-starter.

The reason I have been so vociferously against the Sanders campaign on here is because my wife represents how millions of people are in red and purple districts all across this country.

If Bernie Sanders is the nominee, I will dutifully vote for him. But he will lose, and it probably won't be close.

And Bernie being at the top of the ticket will take out people like Conor Lamb, Katie Porter, Tom Malinowski, Abigail Spanberger, and countless others who won red-leaning districts because of the votes of people like my wife.

My wife will vote for an Elizabeth Warren. But a Bernie Sanders is a bridge too far. And there are millions like my wife.

For the life of me, I can't understand why Democrats are making a lay-up election in 2020 so hard. We could be on the verge of nominating a cranky, 78-year-old, socialist, heart attack victim from a small New England state. We Democrats are our own worst enemies.

And when Bernie loses 35+ states and gives Donald Trump the mandate-for-the-ages to continue his lawless corrupt Presidency, the goals that the Bernie supporters want so much - Medicare-for-all, student loan forgiveness, massive climate action - will be gone for a generation. On November 4, 2020, Bernie will end up being the most reviled person in the country when that happens.

Many of us - hell, the majority of us - can see this train barreling down the tracks and can see where all of this is headed. But we're powerless to stop it because way too many naive Democratic voters are buying something that Bernie is selling that even he knows is not going to happen.

If we nominate Bernie Sanders, November 3 will be the end of the Democratic Party as we know it - and the end of any chance to get back to being a functioning Democratic Republic as a nation.

Yeah, I'm getting a little despondent about it. My circle of friends are generally in the middle politically - to my right, but they represent the voters that decide elections. They will not vote for Bernie Sanders. They won't vote for Trump, they'll just not vote at all. And the "kids" are not going to make up for their votes, there aren't enough of them.

We're blowing this. 2020 would be a lay-up for Democrats with literally almost any one of our 25+ original candidates except for the one current leading in the upcoming states.

The dark blue enclaves on the coasts will get their candidate. But they're dooming the rest of us to (at least) four more years of Trumpism.

February 20, 2020

Biden and Warren are really helped by having their CNN town halls tomorrow night

I think they were the clear #1 and #2 performers in tonight's debate. And now each of them will get a full hour on CNN tomorrow night to continue where they left off tonight.

It won't impact Nevada much, since 2/3 of the voters have already voted. But it could have a major impact on SC and the Super Tuesday states.

I think both Warren and Biden will have significant poll bumps in the coming days. Biden will get back a lot of the support he lost to Bloomberg, and Warren will take some from Bernie and some from Amy (unfortunately).

February 20, 2020

I had to laugh at this tweet

https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1230323931267026944

February 20, 2020

Predict the post debate poll bumps:

I think Biden gets a significant "rebound" in the polls over the next week. Not just because he did well tonight, but because two candidates that he was bleeding support toward - Bloomberg and Klobuchar - had bad nights.

I think Warren will get a nice bump over the next week.

I think Pete and Bernie will stay about where they were in the polls going in. I thought Bernie did poorly tonight, but his supporters aren't movable. But he didn't gain any tonight. Pete got some great hits in on other candidates, but I think it will help other candidates instead of him.



None of this will show up in the Nevada Caucus though... because 2/3 of Nevada has already voted.

February 20, 2020

The Bernie supporters in the crowd yelling "we don't want you!" at Biden at the end were disgusting

They sat there quietly for 2 hours, only to wait until Biden was about to speak to yell at him.


But Bernie wants to say that "99.9% of my supporters are decent people!"


Man, that 0.1% sure does get around and make themselves noticed.