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Beautiful Disaster

Beautiful Disaster's Journal
Beautiful Disaster's Journal
July 1, 2023

The problem with purity politics...

Beyond the obvious of what it does at the presidential level, is that it inevitably bleeds down into other races. And then it erodes the same politicians who the left have galvanized for in previous elections.

Case in point: Russ Feingold.

Russ has always been a strong progressive, who frequently fought the good fight.

And yet in 2010, Wisconsin bounced him from the senate for Ron Johnson. In 2016, they again denied him a return

Losing that senate seat was pretty devastating for the Democrats - but maybe even more than that, it was devastating for the left because they lost a progressive champion. Losing that seat in 2010 was far more devastating for the ideology than losing Evan Bayh's seat in Indiana.

Equally awful? Giving up Illinois, Wisconsin's neighbor and handing the Republicans Barack Obama's seat. Alexi Giannoulias, who was running for that seat, was a progressive - even saying he would create a Progressive Caucus in the US Senate. He lost that seat to Mark Kirk by one-point. A progressive voice completely snuffed out because, gosh, we gotta have purity.

Remember those two seats because then there's 2014. Mo Udall, of Colorado, a fairly progressive voice, was defeated by less than two-points in his race vs Corey Gardner - an extremist Republican. The Democrats also lost Kay Hagan, who wasn't a progressive, or at least not a firebrand progressive, but a good enough senator, to Thom Tillis. She lost that election by less than two-points too.

The lone bright spot in the senate was flipping New Hampshire.

But think about that. In those two elections, the purists weren't hurting Obama - they were hurting the movement overall. This wasn't about Obama. This was about delivering pretty progressive senators back to the US Senate.

In those two elections, they lost three stalwart progressives that would have served progressive needs in the US Senate and one fairly moderate. That's four seats they left on the board in those two elections alone.

If they had just won those four seats in 2010 and 2014, we would have had a 50/50 senate. That means, Vice President Joe Biden would have been the tie-breaker.

Scalia dies and it's Chuck Schumer who's the Majority leader. Not McConnell.

That means he's able to bring a vote to the floor on Obama's nomination. Maybe it's Garland - maybe he goes big and replaces Scalia with an even bigger liberal.

Regardless, the court has now shifted dramatically.

The liberals, with RBG still on the court, now have a one-vote advantage (4-3 with Kennedy the swing vote).

That's how important everything was. Yes, getting Obama reelected in 2012 would have been essential in this world - but purity politics was devastating at the US Senate level.

And let's assume in 2016 that Hillary wins - ekes out a victory over Trump. Feingold wins reelection, maybe against Johnson again, and the Democrats flip New Hampshire (like they did in reality). Now Hillary is working with a one-seat advantage in the Supreme Court.

RBG retires in 2017 and is replaced by a younger Justice.

Maybe, though I doubt it because there's some shady business there, but maybe Kennedy retires too some time in Hillary's first two years.

Regardless, the composition of the court is still dramatically different today.

One could assume, based on how he voted in Casey, he would have voted to uphold Roe - at least.

On that alone, it's a gigantic win.

Because the Supreme Court would have had four liberals, only three conservatives and a swing Kennedy, who, despite all the shadiness, had a history of voting on some very liberal orders.

And if Kennedy is out, then he's replaced with a staunch liberal who swings the court for a generation to the left.

But instead we're stuck.

We're stuck with a court with six conservative justices.

All because people sat out in 2010 and 2014 and then in 2016.

But we need to realize that the presidency is not the end-all of politics. Apathy at the presidential level absolutely will destroy you at the congressional level. That's a fact. We know this because we've seen it.

This mess isn't just because Hillary lost in 2016. She could have won, and every senate race could have gone the way it actually did, and we very well could still be in this mess.

A Republican Senate that refuses to seat her appointment for Scalia and RBG basically stuck on the bench like she was anyway because she knows that Republicans won't seat her replacement, either.

Maybe it backfires and motivates the left to finally support Democrats in 2018 but does anyone really believe it?

So, my point is that we can't just focus on presidential elections. They're massively important but the purity game has been more devastating at the congressional level in many ways than it has been at the presidential because that was just one election - today is a result of also the apathy we saw in 2010 and 2014 from voters who wanted to make Obama pay.

Well now we're all paying.

Congrats, guys!

June 30, 2023

THIS is good

I like this. Just keep doing something. Even if it's shot down. Just keep trying. Look like a fighter. Leave it on the mat. This is good politics and what I wanted to see from Biden.

June 25, 2023

Found it interesting that Sen. John Kennedy (LA) isn't really a Kennedy.

His grandfather's surname was Kannady. It seemed to change with Kennedy's father, A. Preston Kennedy.

Why, I do not know. When? I do not know. It wasn't because they relocated to the United States from another country.

John Kennedy's grandfather, George Britton Kannady, was born in Arkansas.

I know a trivial fucking thing but it really annoys me that he shares the name with JFK.

June 20, 2023

The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll poll is very fishy...

You know, the one that has Trump beating Biden by 6 points nationally.

It doesn't compute when logically breaking it down.

For starters, it's co-directed by Mark Penn. I'm sure you remember him. He worked on Clinton's campaign in 2008, but resigned and it later came out he was pushing for her to go after Obama's exotic and foreign background. Since leaving that campaign, he has consistently attacked Democrats from the perceived 'left' (I say left loosely, but he's often one to bring on FOX News as a 'Democratic strategist' to criticize Democrats. You know, the new Pat Caddell now that he's dead and the Dick Morriss now that he's been proven a fraud).

Mark Penn is also now tied to No Labels. I don't need to tell you about that group,

Dritan Nesho is also a co-director and he too has ties to No Labels.

But even if you look beyond that - the results seem to be a mix of push-polling and fantasy.

1. Their poll that has Trump beating Biden shows that 11% of Democrats would vote for Donald Trump. This doesn't make much sense considering the amount of Democrats who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 was 8% and 5% respectively. I'm to believe that Trump is going to more than double his support among Democrats in 2024?

They also show Biden receiving only 77% of the Democratic vote - where he received 94% in 2020.

But let's get into the push-polling.

Here's a question they ask about 'fair justice':

Do you think indicting a former president for taking classified documents after leaving office, something done by Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and other senior officials, is a fair application justice or selective prosecution?

Tell me how that question is not the definition of a push-poll? It's conflating what happened with Hillary and Biden to what is happening with Trump. They're basically asking if it's fair to treat Trump differently than Hillary and Biden, even though Hillary and Biden did the exact same thing. But that isn't the case. Hillary and Biden did not do the same thing.

That bolsters the narrative that a) Biden mishandled the documents and b) it's a political witch hunt.

Which explains why 65% of respondents said Biden mishandled classified information in this poll - more than those who said Trump did (and another number where Democrats supposedly think much worse of Biden than Republicans Trump - as 40% of Democrats say he mishandled the information).

And why their poll shows 55% of respondents say his indictment is politically motivated - gee, I wonder why? You just asked those polled if it was fair despite him doing exactly what Hillary and Biden did!

The poll also shows 30% of Democrats think Trump should be pardoned (53% total), which seems outright ridiculous.

Here's another push-poll question!

Do you think that the FBI report from an informant alleging that Joe Biden took a $5 million bribe while he was Vice President should be made public or kept secret by the FBI?

What kind of question is that?!?

Which, clearly, leads to the answer to this question:

Do you think Joe Biden took a $5 million bribe when he was Vice President, or is that a false charge?

57% of voters believe this - when I doubt even 50% of voters have even heard this charge. I am to believe 57% actually believe, with no evidence, that Biden took $5 million? That includes nearly 30% of Democrats.

Yeah fucking right.

In fact, more curious is the fact that 47% of people hadn't heard of the accusation and yet 57% believe he did it?

Sure.

This poll is a mess of contradictions.

June 17, 2023

BREAKING: DOLE LEADS CLINTON BY NINE IN NEW POLL FROM NEWSWEEK

From June, 1995:

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/1995/jun/11/dole-edges-clinton-in-newsweek-poll/

Sen. Bob Dole would beat President Clinton by a slim margin if a head-to-head presidential election were held today, according to a poll released Saturday.

The Newsweek poll of 755 adults to be published in the magazine’s June 15 edition shows the Kansas Republican ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.

The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.


Dammit. I hope Clinton can pull it out and win in 1996 but right now it's not looking good. I'd bet the Republicans win the White House next year.
May 12, 2023

Joe Biden saved Chris Licht's life.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/27/cnn-boss-chris-licht-biden-saved-my-life-after-aneurism/

According to the memoir, Biden called the hospital that was treating Licht and arranged to have him evaluated by a top neurosurgeon.

The neurosurgeon is reported to have examined Licht in order to assess the severity of his condition. Shortly afterward, the doctor is said to have made treating Licht a top priority, according to the memoir.

Licht writes that Biden periodically checked in on him and his wife.

Months later, Licht attended at a party at the vice president’s residence at the US Naval Observatory in the capital. It was there that Licht credited Biden with saving his life, according to the memoir.

“He is a great and kind person, and the photo taken that day of Jenny and me being embraced by the vice president of the United States will live on in our family forever,” he said.

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