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Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

22. Nate is trying to CYA. I'll post the polls for you. I saved them to my pc on election night.

Mon Jul 16, 2018, 06:59 PM

Jul 2018

Last edited Mon Jul 16, 2018, 07:46 PM - Edit history (3)

They show that altho Hill's numbers had suffered from Comey AND Stein support, she was still ahead almost across the board.

If she had been hurt badly, or momentum was clearly against her, many would have known she might not win. NATE SILVER PROJECTED THAT SHE'D WIN, based on the polls and other data.

Well, I can't figure out how to post it. It's in a spreadsheet. Here's a cut and paste, though. Note that of the 11 polls where there is a prior poll, she lost a bit in 5 of them, and she stayed the same or increased her numbers in 5 of them, and for another (Clinton +2) there was no prior poll. This was after the 10/29 Comey surprise, AND the push for Jill Stein AND she didn't do that well in their last debate. Still, shortly before the election, Clinton was leading in almost all polls. (Altho it was w/in MOE, the odds her LOSING because of a MOE in all those states where she lost is pretty small. That has never happened before, since polling began. This was so striking that I wondered on forums whether Russia had interfered, because it made NO SENSE. And now we know that Russia did hack into election systems.

Last polls before the election: are followed by the prior poll by same pollster:

Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread

11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 45, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Trump +2
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +3

11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 45, Trump 42 Clinton +3

11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4
****10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +3

11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4

11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +2
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Tie

11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44 Clinton +4
****10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 44 Clinton +5

11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46 Clinton +3
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5

11/7 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Trump 45, Clinton 46, Johnson 4, Stein 0 Clinton +1
****10/27 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 1 Clinton +1

11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +4
****10/29 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Clinton +6

11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 47, Trump 45, Johnson 2, Stein 2 Clinton +2
****(no prior poll)

10/31 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +6
****10/28 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#

Comey should not have done what he did. Who knows what he was thinking, or why he did it. But he did not cost her the election. He contributed to it, probably. But Jill Stein did her as much damage, and now we know that Russia DID hack election systems.

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Comey tweet [View all] BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 OP

F**K YOU COMEY, YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ASSHOLE still_one Jul 2018 #1

Yes he is and WE are reaping what HE had sown BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #2

Yes. All of this is so frustrating still_one Jul 2018 #3

A whole pile of dots just got connected BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #5

No, he's not. If that were true, we would've known election night that Trump would win. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #7

Sorry, but that assessment does NOT match the facts. Hillary was ahead in all the polls, untill 11 still_one Jul 2018 #13

Nate is trying to CYA. I'll post the polls for you. I saved them to my pc on election night. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #22

I absolutely don't agree, and my calling and canvassing into swing states reflected that along with still_one Jul 2018 #33

Facts are facts. Data are data. I posted the data. Comey did nt cost her the election. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #35

There was more than one player involved in this, and just saying it was due to the still_one Jul 2018 #36

Yes. Russia mainly. It was so obvious on election night. And Jill Stein. And Comey. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #37

You and I will not agree on this, and to absolve the 47% who didn't vote, or the 5 to 10% who refuse still_one Jul 2018 #40

You're wrong about the polls. I even found the last RCP numbers mythology Jul 2018 #49

I like your attitude Corvo Bianco Jul 2018 #41

There are so many whose role is greater, like PUTIN, duh. So much blame to go around. Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2018 #46

I agree, there were many involved still_one Jul 2018 #48

Damn right. Lying asswipe. Tipperary Jul 2018 #55

I do! I reject it totally!!! RESIST! nt Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #4

But does the flag-waving USA! USA! USA! GOP reject it? BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #6

I doubt it. We'll see. They are all about a buck tomorrow in exchange for the country. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #8

I bet 3/4 of them couldn't find Russia on a map BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #11

Even Sarah Palin couldn't. But she doesn't need to, since she can see it from her porch. Honeycombe8 Jul 2018 #38

Well she did say something about BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #39

That is so funny. tymorial Jul 2018 #51

HOW FUCKING IRONIC! Cha Jul 2018 #9

Mahalo Cha! BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #12

Yes, BRDS, comey was a Huge part of Cha Jul 2018 #43

It will be interesting to see what happens BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #44

Yeah, we'll see who WINS.. Cha Jul 2018 #45

The NY Daily News is a treasure! BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #54

I finished your sentence Cha Jul 2018 #58

Watch your blood pressure, Cha! charlyvi Jul 2018 #47

I just happened to have Cha Jul 2018 #50

Best to let it out Cha! BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #53

HELLA YEAH! Cha Jul 2018 #56

They need to do way more than reject his behavior ecstatic Jul 2018 #10

Don't forget the now-escalating trade war BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #14

You THREW him the election Comey! Happy now? MoonRiver Jul 2018 #15

And then Drumpf threw HIM under the bus. BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #16

Yep. Wonder if he's learned anything. MoonRiver Jul 2018 #17

The question might be, who in the FBI BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #19

Yes. Yes, he did. eom sprinkleeninow Jul 2018 #34

He is the last person I needed to hear from today. boston bean Jul 2018 #18

His twitter feed is getting attacked from both sides BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #20

A lot of good this does us... thanks for fucking the world over Comey! Tatiana Jul 2018 #21

Based on the Strzok testimony BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #23

This is the day James Comey stood before his god and confessed his blind stupidity Hekate Jul 2018 #24

And now too late. BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #25

F**k you Comey!! You are the reason that this traitor is the president! helpisontheway Jul 2018 #26

One of the retweeted twitter responses to his tweet BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #27

Bless your heart. calimary Jul 2018 #28

You don't even need BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #29

I just wanted to be VERY clear about the meaning here. calimary Jul 2018 #30

Many of us know BumRushDaShow Jul 2018 #31

STFU. eleny Jul 2018 #32

Hey Jimmy: hope that mild nausea you suffer from is permanent Mr. Ected Jul 2018 #42

Who likely wouldn't be in office without your help, you ass. we can do it Jul 2018 #52

K&R Scurrilous Jul 2018 #57