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In reply to the discussion: Can we please kick Nate Silver to the curb [View all]BannonsLiver
(16,384 posts)47. I think the best bet moving forward
Is to assume all our general elections will be extremely close. Of the last 5, 3 of them have been decided by extremely close margins. It took a once in a lifetime political talent like Obama for the 2 that werent.
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It's a shit-in shit-out situation. He collects the public polling data from the "reputable" polling
In It to Win It
Nov 2020
#64
No assertion of probability can be called "wrong" unless it's either 0% or 100%.
Towlie
Nov 2020
#39
It's not Nate Silver's fault that roughly 70 million Americans voted for fascism
WSHazel
Nov 2020
#2
Don't get me wrong. I stopped following him, 538 and any other pollsters right after Nov. 3.
Claustrum
Nov 2020
#27
True, but I think polls are going to have a lote less credibility going forward
Miguelito Loveless
Nov 2020
#18
He said Trump had a 10% change of winning! You understand 10% happens correct? nt
USALiberal
Nov 2020
#19
Frustration is at the limitations of statistics-- and polls suffer the same issues
hlthe2b
Nov 2020
#30
This isn't Silver's fault. Washington Post had a poll showing Biden up 16 points
Azathoth
Nov 2020
#38
Polling needs to be replaced by an analysis of what is happening on social media
Klaralven
Nov 2020
#41
Oh yeah, social media is oh-so-reliable. No one has ever detected any fake accounts
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#46
Social media knows a lot about posters, whether they are fake or not, bots or not.
Klaralven
Nov 2020
#53
Oh, there was me thinking this thread was about how to predict how people will vote
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#55
This thread is about "election predictions". ie "voting predictions".
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#60