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In reply to the discussion: Can we please kick Nate Silver to the curb [View all]Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)50. For the presidency, so far he's only missed on 2
Florida and ME-2. North Carolina may also be off, well see what happens with the absentee ballots, and if he did miscall GA it was only by the thinnest of margins but Im hoping it ends up in the D column.
Florida obviously is the big miss, anyone watching the Miami-Dade results on Floridas website saw a huge red flag there once early voting started. Perhaps his model should start taking early voting into account.
Id argue the problem isnt with Nate, its with the pollsters. His predictions are only as good as the data hes given. Remember that poll that showed WI with a +18 Biden lead? It was from a reputable pollster too.
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It's a shit-in shit-out situation. He collects the public polling data from the "reputable" polling
In It to Win It
Nov 2020
#64
No assertion of probability can be called "wrong" unless it's either 0% or 100%.
Towlie
Nov 2020
#39
It's not Nate Silver's fault that roughly 70 million Americans voted for fascism
WSHazel
Nov 2020
#2
Don't get me wrong. I stopped following him, 538 and any other pollsters right after Nov. 3.
Claustrum
Nov 2020
#27
True, but I think polls are going to have a lote less credibility going forward
Miguelito Loveless
Nov 2020
#18
He said Trump had a 10% change of winning! You understand 10% happens correct? nt
USALiberal
Nov 2020
#19
Frustration is at the limitations of statistics-- and polls suffer the same issues
hlthe2b
Nov 2020
#30
This isn't Silver's fault. Washington Post had a poll showing Biden up 16 points
Azathoth
Nov 2020
#38
Polling needs to be replaced by an analysis of what is happening on social media
Klaralven
Nov 2020
#41
Oh yeah, social media is oh-so-reliable. No one has ever detected any fake accounts
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#46
Social media knows a lot about posters, whether they are fake or not, bots or not.
Klaralven
Nov 2020
#53
Oh, there was me thinking this thread was about how to predict how people will vote
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#55
This thread is about "election predictions". ie "voting predictions".
muriel_volestrangler
Nov 2020
#60