China Ukraine Strategy

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5. here's the cold reality

if Russia wants Ukraine, we won't stop them. We could, we won't.

if China wants Taiwan, we won't stop them. We could, we won't.

Because in both cases it involves committing substantial US forces to two countries that are next door to two nuclear powers.

And doing so for probably as long as we stayed anywhere else, which is to say a generation or more.

Now, we can make it painful economically, but we aren't going to do anything else, and that's what this is about...a test.

If Russia can do this relatively unscathed, then China can do it. That's why China is sticking by Russia, because Russia gets to be the test case.