Some positive signs for us all to keep in mind: [View all]

[Sky Jewels]

Last edited Mon Nov 7, 2022, 11:14 PM - Edit history (2)

(edited to add things as they occur to me)

- the very encouraging early vote stats
- no evidence of a red wave so far
- Dems crushed the GQP in small donations
- Dems' enthusiasm is polling equal to the bad guys
- many new voters registered D post Dobbs
- women are much more likely to vote D and they are outvoting men bigly so far
- a not insignificant number of Republican women will flip their vote to D in light of Dobbs
- young voters reporting they will vote in big numbers on election day
- likely voter models are probably very inaccurate, in our favor
- although more people say they're concerned about inflation, inflation is not the burning motivator to vote like Dobbs is
- no Trump on the ballot this time; a lot of Republicans are loyal to Dear Leader only, not the GQP in general
- conversely, Trump won’t go away, and that’s motivating for Dems
- more people are understanding that democracy itself is at stake
- GQP putting most of its eggs in election day voting -- very risky for them
- numbers in past few days have moved a bit towards the Ds
- Republicans not acting like they're confident about tomorrow (e.g. all the desperate lawsuits they're filing)
- Republicans trumpeting bullshit right wing polls…NOT their internal polls (things that make you go “hmmm.”)
- independent polls showing a much more favorable outlook than the right wing polls like Trafalgar that the GQP has been pushing to skew averages like 538
- some pundits are finally stepping back and admitting it won't necessarily be an R blowout after all, because "anything could happen" -- trying to salvage a bit of their own credibility?
- in 2020, the Dems didn't have much of a ground game due to the pandemic (while the GQP did). This time, thousands of D volunteers are knocking on doors, canvassing, etc.
- progressive and Dem organizations seeing big participation with things like postcard writing (personally, I sent 200 to Nevada and 15 to Georgia)
- since 2020, about 8 million Gen Zers have turned 18. Sure, it will take a while for them to register and vote reliably, but they're overwhelmingly more progressive in general than the older generations, including the dwindling Silent Gen demo, which is quite conservative (yes, in general, exceptions abound, etc.)
- Several hundred thousand Trumpy anti-vaxxers have died of Covid. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld: "That's a shame."
- Dems have overperformed expectations in the last several special elections

As William Rivers Pitt would have told us: "Stout Hearts."