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In reply to the discussion: I get the feeling Trump knows he's going to jail for contempt [View all]onenote
(42,949 posts)Norm Eisen's research indicates that while a jail term impossible, judges consider the treatment of other defendants charged with similar offense and only 1 in 10 cases of falsifying business records result in a prison term:
This may be the first criminal trial of a former president in American history, but if convicted, Mr. Trumps fate is likely to be determined by the same core factors that guide the sentencing of every criminal defendant in New York State Court.
Comparable cases. The first factor is the base line against which judges measure all sentences: how other defendants have been treated for similar offenses. My research encompassed almost 10,000 cases of felony falsifying business records that have been prosecuted across the state of New York since 2015. Over a similar period, the Manhattan D.A. has charged over 400 of these cases. In roughly the first year of Mr. Braggs tenure, his team alone filed 166 felony counts for falsifying business records against 34 people or companies.
Contrary to claims that there will be no sentence of incarceration for falsifying business records, when a felony conviction involves serious misconduct, defendants can be sentenced to some prison time. My analysis of the most recent data indicates that approximately one in 10 cases in which the most serious charge at arraignment is falsifying business records in the first degree and in which the court ultimately imposes a sentence, results in a term of imprisonment.
To be clear, these cases generally differ from Mr. Trumps case in one important respect: They typically involve additional charges besides just falsifying records. That clearly complicates what we might expect if Mr. Trump is convicted.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/opinion/donald-trump-trial-prison.html