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Polybius

(16,754 posts) Thu Jul 18, 2024, 09:07 AM Jul 18

538 this morning: Biden up to a 54% chance of winning [View all]

Trump down to 46%.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

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538 this morning: Biden up to a 54% chance of winning [View all] Polybius Jul 18 OP

Waiting for today's update ITAL Jul 18 #1

During their convention? underpants Jul 18 #2

54% isn't stellar, but it's sorta good and trending better. Girard442 Jul 18 #3

Is Biden ahead in the states that matter most? NCDem47 Jul 18 #16

I don't think there is any place to get accurate polling data. lees1975 Jul 18 #29

And yet it is the down ticket candidates that wnylib Jul 18 #30

So this should stop the bed wetters and now join us in party unity Emile Jul 18 #4

I'm still waiting for the "Biden has COVID. He should step down" Norbert Jul 18 #7

I foolishly thought WA-03 Democrat Jul 18 #34

Schiff's official congressional website has a place where people can leave comments. All comments are 100% behind Biden. NBachers Jul 19 #58

I bet he gets an extra $10,000 Farmer-Rick Jul 18 #36

Convention bump Wednesdays Jul 18 #5

I think everyone is exhausted by Trump. All the livetohike Jul 18 #8

This isn't a poll however Polybius Jul 18 #21

It's a forecast based on the polls. W_HAMILTON Jul 18 #26

But they changed for the worst Polybius Jul 18 #42

They've actually gotten better. W_HAMILTON Jul 18 #45

How does 538 calculate those chances? wnylib Jul 18 #31

Go to his Web site Farmer-Rick Jul 18 #38

It's funny how we suddenly have faith in 538 again. TwilightZone Jul 18 #6

For what it's worth-- thucythucy Jul 18 #10

Morris himself has said the further away from the election the more fundamentals affect the prediction. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 18 #14

If Biden won the EC but Trump won the popular vote, wnylib Jul 18 #32

This is a similar situation that actually happened to the Tory in UK on July 4th. Claustrum Jul 19 #57

Odds likely still boosted by good news on CPI Fiendish Thingy Jul 18 #9

The predictions are probably going to flip several times on 538 before November. Elessar Zappa Jul 18 #13

They have been flipping for the past several weeks Fiendish Thingy Jul 18 #17

I think the turnout will be huge....as the saying goes,see you in ROEvember! Bengus81 Jul 18 #37

The better Joe does, the louder the fools call for him to step down. Wonder why? Midnight Writer Jul 18 #11

Odd, isn't it? StarryNite Jul 18 #24

Yep...Trump was supposed to get 3/5/10 points after the debate, never happened Bengus81 Jul 18 #39

We are a capitalist nation after all Farmer-Rick Jul 18 #40

But, but, but.... SocialDemocrat61 Jul 18 #12

This isn't a poll, however Polybius Jul 18 #23

Share this with the congresspersons who say we can't win. Takket Jul 18 #15

It's because of these polls from CNN and others Tickle Jul 18 #18

Well, hell, son, you ain't gonna sell no papers with THAT headline! DFW Jul 18 #19

So glad that 538 has him above the 50% line Scalded Nun Jul 18 #20

you go Joe BoRaGard Jul 18 #22

I have not seen any Trump stories on my feed on FB from those in my friends list Peacetrain Jul 18 #25

It is devastating that our Democratic leaders have turned their back on Zilli Jul 18 #27

Why then are DownriverDem Jul 18 #28

They are paid to Farmer-Rick Jul 18 #41

So why haven't their votes changed? Polybius Jul 19 #52

Because then he would be under attack Farmer-Rick Jul 19 #59

Because there's nothing at all definitive about 538 SamuelTheThird Jul 18 #44

Newsflash: there's nothing definitive about any of this polling bullshit. W_HAMILTON Jul 18 #47

Let's GOTV and let's win this for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris! ffr Jul 18 #33

I guess Nancy didn't see that Lulu KC Jul 18 #35

The polls are broken Farmer-Rick Jul 18 #43

Frankly, I wonder if that has to do with Joe fighting back against the supposed calls to step down. Behind the Aegis Jul 18 #46

Billionaires don't give a rip. They want what they want and they have the money to buy it. shrike3 Jul 18 #48

It's going the other way DavidDvorkin Jul 18 #49

Ugg, down to 50-50 this afternoon Polybius Jul 19 #50

Now that it no longer shows Biden up, are you going to trust it? W_HAMILTON Jul 19 #54

The wobble lobby needs to get a grip BoRaGard Jul 19 #51

And a CLUE Cha Jul 19 #56

But.. but.. but.. 2/3 of American voters.. LW1977 Jul 19 #53

I will vote for Joe ! MOMFUDSKI Jul 19 #55

Kick Eko Jul 19 #60