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EnergizedLib

(1,985 posts)
Fri Aug 23, 2024, 02:42 PM Aug 23

Why I think 2024 is different than 2016 [View all]

I’ve seen this before in the last eight years. We lead in the polls, and we either get stunned like in 2016 or we pull off a squeaker in 2020.

Now, I’m not about to call 400 electoral votes for us, but I think 2024 is different than 2016 for different reasons.

1. Likability - You had two deeply unpopular candidates run against each other in 2016. One of them is still around, but just like President Biden in 2020, people just don’t hate Vice President Harris the way they hated Secretary Clinton, and she doesn’t come with the concerns Secretary Clinton did.

2. MAGA Fatigue - 2016 will go down as one of the biggest mistakes America ever made, and while it’s always been an awful election, I can somewhat see it in hindsight. People fell for the con, wanted something new and wanted something different from the Bushes/Clintons. MAGA isn’t new anymore and it’s dominated the news cycle for the last nine years.

3. Energy and Enthusiasm - Kamala’s crowds are being compared to President Obama in 2008. It’s a fury of excitement, that’s for sure. They had that in 2016, I’d say more than we did. I think we won in 2020 largely not on America being enamored without President Biden, but anti-trump. The prospect, however, of a first woman, first woman of color president, who isn’t as hated as Secretary Clinton, plus the anti-trump sentiment, that can only help us.

4. Running mate picks - Not that I necessarily have anything bad to say about Tim Kaine, but Tim Walz brings more inspiration and excitement than he did, while JD Vance looks like a historically unpopular pick that rivals the 2008 Sarah Palin blunder.

5. Attitudes - Secretary Clinton didn’t campaign in Wisconsin. We all thought she had it. Vice President Harris is campaigning in Wisconsin, she isn’t treating this like a coronation. She’s talking about the hard work that lies ahead on the campaign trail and seeing herself as the underdog. While this guarantees nothing, it gives me reason for optimism.

6. Threats - America was asleep at the wheel in 2016, leading to a drunken one night stand. The result has been the Dobbs disaster that awoke millions, a convicted felon having stenched up our White House, a corrupt, partisan Supreme Court who, even if they have their limits, has emboldened Republicans at the national and local level to want to encroach on freedoms and take rights away. They think they can get away with stuff since Dobbs was handed down. That’s how you’ve gotten Project 2025, that’s how you’ve gotten Draconian abortion bans and some states wanting to push for more. People don’t want to lose their rights and lose democracy. Now, people see. Dobbs and election denial/insurrection are not winners for them.

7. Subsequent elections - The pushback began in 2018, we took the White House and Senate back in 2020, added a Senate seat in 2022 and lost the House by only a thin margin. We also did well with governorships, and I’m old enough to remember the midterms of 2010 and 2018. He couldn’t inspire in 2018, 2020 or 2022, but he’s going to inspire in 2024 after people know what he’s about now?

We most certainly don’t have the presidency wrapped up, but it’s a different America, a different world, than 2016. I think a lot of people know now what so many of us knew and thought back in 2016. They see the disaster firsthand of what happens when you take people’s rights away, what could be worse and when you have only one deeply unpopular candidate instead of two.

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Trump has a political record now Joe Cool Aug 23 #1
True EnergizedLib Aug 23 #2
And his schtick of hatred and bile is only loved by his idiot cultists. Initech Aug 23 #47
Adding: Inclusion of the Next Generations as Stakeholders PikaBlue Aug 23 #3
Well said, PikaBlue. wordstroken Aug 23 #22
Also, VP Harris hasn't had to endure 30 years of character assassination like Hillary did Walleye Aug 23 #4
I will never understand moreland01 Aug 23 #27
30 years of slander by rightwing and corporate media. And a few other things. diane in sf Aug 23 #37
Like what? moreland01 Aug 23 #46
and it worked on more than just repukes Skittles Aug 23 #50
We also have a ticket running on Progressive Populism JCMach1 Aug 23 #5
In my opinion, the biggest factor in 2020 was the pandemic central scrutinizer Aug 23 #6
The main issue may have changed EnergizedLib Aug 23 #7
And the worst thing of all--Trump made vaccines yet another front... keep_left Aug 23 #8
Yes and Unwind Your Mind Aug 23 #16
The biggest sleeper reason: Women across the political spectrum are furious LearnedHand Aug 23 #9
Yes!!!! cally Aug 23 #11
Very good analysis. Thank you! beaglelover Aug 23 #10
Thank You EnergizedLib Aug 23 #12
The Change factor: Kamala is the change candidate not Trump andym Aug 23 #13
Building off the change factor.... EnergizedLib Aug 23 #14
I wonder how many of those squalid fuckbrains who repeated the paralyzingly stupid rationale: Aristus Aug 23 #15
You had Sanders working against her, FBI working against her, overseas working against her LizBeth Aug 23 #17
Correct. That's something that's often glossed over and minimized. Oopsie Daisy Aug 23 #18
This Sanders supporter voted for Hillary EnergizedLib Aug 23 #19
I'm happy to hear it. I wish there could have been more like you. Oopsie Daisy Aug 23 #20
Look at the two difference conventions? HRC and Dems spent the time coddling and appeasing LizBeth Aug 23 #25
Agreed. Previous efforts got us nowhere. At some point, the party has no more ponies to give. Oopsie Daisy Aug 23 #26
It would be fuckin embarrassing the Republicans get a woman in before us and if Trump LizBeth Aug 23 #30
Praise the saints and gods that it wasn't Palin. 😲🤪🤣😂🤡 Oopsie Daisy Aug 23 #32
Even my RW dad voted first time in life Dem for Obama because of her, lol LizBeth Aug 23 #34
Just thinking about the two. That one was about HRC making herself smaller, less... LizBeth Aug 23 #29
All worked hard to create a cartoon villain, like mob psychology. . betsuni Aug 23 #42
You are right on... in everything. I am not going to pretend otherwise or that it did not happen. LizBeth Aug 23 #44
Thank you! birdographer Aug 23 #21
"Maga fatigue" will be a huge part erronis Aug 23 #23
Tea Party evolved/devolved into MAGA EnergizedLib Aug 23 #24
I'll never forget, nor forgive their purple-heart bandaids. Oopsie Daisy Aug 23 #28
In 2016 through most of the country, TFG was that brilliant executive Warpy Aug 23 #31
Sober and refreshing analysis BaronChocula Aug 23 #33
Abortion rights Basso8vb Aug 23 #35
Me too EnergizedLib Aug 23 #40
Absolutely, Energized! slightlv Aug 23 #48
I'm not sure 400 electoral votes would be that far off. lees1975 Aug 23 #36
5. Correct. Hillary did not campaign once in Wisconsin since it was so far off the beaten path. elocs Aug 23 #38
I'll add 8) Rstrstx Aug 23 #39
Yes, all of that and....34 convictions nikatnyte Aug 23 #41
I had MAGA fatigue in January 2017 EnergizedLib Aug 23 #43
Add: Ground game MaryMagdaline Aug 23 #45
Thing is their influencers are pushing the high grocery price b$ IbogaProject Aug 23 #49
There's a word for stealing citizens' rights. Subjugation bucolic_frolic Aug 23 #51
Are we not there already? EnergizedLib Aug 23 #53
I think it's different because we were all in shock at slobby's crass nature SheltieLover Aug 23 #52
Your #5 is a myth, long debunked Zoomie1986 Aug 24 #54
Of course jacksonian Aug 24 #55
Campaigning in a state doesn't guarantee success EnergizedLib Aug 24 #56
As if a few more rallies would've made a difference. Ridiculous. Populists give a lot of rallies and think betsuni Aug 24 #61
Strongly agree that 2024 is way different than 2016 for reasons laid out by OP and in replies, let me add that geo1 Aug 24 #57
K&R spanone Aug 24 #58
What concerns? EllieBC Aug 24 #59
Complete fabrication. Those who created the fictional Hillary should be ashamed of themselves for lying. betsuni Aug 24 #62
Are you telling me EnergizedLib Aug 24 #64
This post should be pinned at the top kcr Aug 24 #60
We aren't running against a game show host anymore. Pacifist Patriot Aug 24 #63
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