Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

Showing Original Post only (View all)

EnergizedLib

(2,228 posts)
Fri Aug 23, 2024, 01:42 PM Aug 2024

Why I think 2024 is different than 2016 [View all]

I’ve seen this before in the last eight years. We lead in the polls, and we either get stunned like in 2016 or we pull off a squeaker in 2020.

Now, I’m not about to call 400 electoral votes for us, but I think 2024 is different than 2016 for different reasons.

1. Likability - You had two deeply unpopular candidates run against each other in 2016. One of them is still around, but just like President Biden in 2020, people just don’t hate Vice President Harris the way they hated Secretary Clinton, and she doesn’t come with the concerns Secretary Clinton did.

2. MAGA Fatigue - 2016 will go down as one of the biggest mistakes America ever made, and while it’s always been an awful election, I can somewhat see it in hindsight. People fell for the con, wanted something new and wanted something different from the Bushes/Clintons. MAGA isn’t new anymore and it’s dominated the news cycle for the last nine years.

3. Energy and Enthusiasm - Kamala’s crowds are being compared to President Obama in 2008. It’s a fury of excitement, that’s for sure. They had that in 2016, I’d say more than we did. I think we won in 2020 largely not on America being enamored without President Biden, but anti-trump. The prospect, however, of a first woman, first woman of color president, who isn’t as hated as Secretary Clinton, plus the anti-trump sentiment, that can only help us.

4. Running mate picks - Not that I necessarily have anything bad to say about Tim Kaine, but Tim Walz brings more inspiration and excitement than he did, while JD Vance looks like a historically unpopular pick that rivals the 2008 Sarah Palin blunder.

5. Attitudes - Secretary Clinton didn’t campaign in Wisconsin. We all thought she had it. Vice President Harris is campaigning in Wisconsin, she isn’t treating this like a coronation. She’s talking about the hard work that lies ahead on the campaign trail and seeing herself as the underdog. While this guarantees nothing, it gives me reason for optimism.

6. Threats - America was asleep at the wheel in 2016, leading to a drunken one night stand. The result has been the Dobbs disaster that awoke millions, a convicted felon having stenched up our White House, a corrupt, partisan Supreme Court who, even if they have their limits, has emboldened Republicans at the national and local level to want to encroach on freedoms and take rights away. They think they can get away with stuff since Dobbs was handed down. That’s how you’ve gotten Project 2025, that’s how you’ve gotten Draconian abortion bans and some states wanting to push for more. People don’t want to lose their rights and lose democracy. Now, people see. Dobbs and election denial/insurrection are not winners for them.

7. Subsequent elections - The pushback began in 2018, we took the White House and Senate back in 2020, added a Senate seat in 2022 and lost the House by only a thin margin. We also did well with governorships, and I’m old enough to remember the midterms of 2010 and 2018. He couldn’t inspire in 2018, 2020 or 2022, but he’s going to inspire in 2024 after people know what he’s about now?

We most certainly don’t have the presidency wrapped up, but it’s a different America, a different world, than 2016. I think a lot of people know now what so many of us knew and thought back in 2016. They see the disaster firsthand of what happens when you take people’s rights away, what could be worse and when you have only one deeply unpopular candidate instead of two.

64 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Trump has a political record now Joe Cool Aug 2024 #1
True EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #2
And his schtick of hatred and bile is only loved by his idiot cultists. Initech Aug 2024 #47
Adding: Inclusion of the Next Generations as Stakeholders PikaBlue Aug 2024 #3
Well said, PikaBlue. wordstroken Aug 2024 #22
Also, VP Harris hasn't had to endure 30 years of character assassination like Hillary did Walleye Aug 2024 #4
I will never understand moreland01 Aug 2024 #27
30 years of slander by rightwing and corporate media. And a few other things. diane in sf Aug 2024 #37
Like what? moreland01 Aug 2024 #46
and it worked on more than just repukes Skittles Aug 2024 #50
We also have a ticket running on Progressive Populism JCMach1 Aug 2024 #5
In my opinion, the biggest factor in 2020 was the pandemic central scrutinizer Aug 2024 #6
The main issue may have changed EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #7
And the worst thing of all--Trump made vaccines yet another front... keep_left Aug 2024 #8
Yes and Unwind Your Mind Aug 2024 #16
The biggest sleeper reason: Women across the political spectrum are furious LearnedHand Aug 2024 #9
Yes!!!! cally Aug 2024 #11
Very good analysis. Thank you! beaglelover Aug 2024 #10
Thank You EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #12
The Change factor: Kamala is the change candidate not Trump andym Aug 2024 #13
Building off the change factor.... EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #14
I wonder how many of those squalid fuckbrains who repeated the paralyzingly stupid rationale: Aristus Aug 2024 #15
You had Sanders working against her, FBI working against her, overseas working against her LizBeth Aug 2024 #17
Correct. That's something that's often glossed over and minimized. Oopsie Daisy Aug 2024 #18
This Sanders supporter voted for Hillary EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #19
I'm happy to hear it. I wish there could have been more like you. Oopsie Daisy Aug 2024 #20
Look at the two difference conventions? HRC and Dems spent the time coddling and appeasing LizBeth Aug 2024 #25
Agreed. Previous efforts got us nowhere. At some point, the party has no more ponies to give. Oopsie Daisy Aug 2024 #26
It would be fuckin embarrassing the Republicans get a woman in before us and if Trump LizBeth Aug 2024 #30
Praise the saints and gods that it wasn't Palin. 😲🤪🤣😂🤡 Oopsie Daisy Aug 2024 #32
Even my RW dad voted first time in life Dem for Obama because of her, lol LizBeth Aug 2024 #34
Just thinking about the two. That one was about HRC making herself smaller, less... LizBeth Aug 2024 #29
All worked hard to create a cartoon villain, like mob psychology. . betsuni Aug 2024 #42
You are right on... in everything. I am not going to pretend otherwise or that it did not happen. LizBeth Aug 2024 #44
Thank you! birdographer Aug 2024 #21
"Maga fatigue" will be a huge part erronis Aug 2024 #23
Tea Party evolved/devolved into MAGA EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #24
I'll never forget, nor forgive their purple-heart bandaids. Oopsie Daisy Aug 2024 #28
In 2016 through most of the country, TFG was that brilliant executive Warpy Aug 2024 #31
Sober and refreshing analysis BaronChocula Aug 2024 #33
Abortion rights Basso8vb Aug 2024 #35
Me too EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #40
Absolutely, Energized! slightlv Aug 2024 #48
I'm not sure 400 electoral votes would be that far off. lees1975 Aug 2024 #36
5. Correct. Hillary did not campaign once in Wisconsin since it was so far off the beaten path. elocs Aug 2024 #38
I'll add 8) Rstrstx Aug 2024 #39
Yes, all of that and....34 convictions nikatnyte Aug 2024 #41
I had MAGA fatigue in January 2017 EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #43
Add: Ground game MaryMagdaline Aug 2024 #45
Thing is their influencers are pushing the high grocery price b$ IbogaProject Aug 2024 #49
There's a word for stealing citizens' rights. Subjugation bucolic_frolic Aug 2024 #51
Are we not there already? EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #53
I think it's different because we were all in shock at slobby's crass nature SheltieLover Aug 2024 #52
Your #5 is a myth, long debunked Zoomie1986 Aug 2024 #54
Of course jacksonian Aug 2024 #55
Campaigning in a state doesn't guarantee success EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #56
As if a few more rallies would've made a difference. Ridiculous. Populists give a lot of rallies and think betsuni Aug 2024 #61
Strongly agree that 2024 is way different than 2016 for reasons laid out by OP and in replies, let me add that geo1 Aug 2024 #57
K&R spanone Aug 2024 #58
What concerns? EllieBC Aug 2024 #59
Complete fabrication. Those who created the fictional Hillary should be ashamed of themselves for lying. betsuni Aug 2024 #62
Are you telling me EnergizedLib Aug 2024 #64
This post should be pinned at the top kcr Aug 2024 #60
We aren't running against a game show host anymore. Pacifist Patriot Aug 2024 #63
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Why I think 2024 is diffe...