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LauraInLA

(1,218 posts) Thu Oct 24, 2024, 01:01 PM Thursday

124

"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all]

Has anyone heard of this group?

“Vantage has been tracking seven swing states daily since August. Until recently, the race consistently appeared as a toss-up. Just a few days ago, the numbers started to shift. It's clear the momentum is moving away from Trump. Here's how our nightly tracking data (1,200 interviews per state) stacks up against what FiveThirtyEight (538) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) are reporting in their averages.”

https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

60 replies

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"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all] LauraInLA Thursday OP

Never heard of them but very encouraging analysis Wiz Imp Thursday #1

Hmmm dweller Thursday #2

Polling averages cannot be trusted due to manipulation by corrupt Red Wave pollsters. Nt Fiendish Thingy Thursday #3

Some polling averages exclude partisan polls. CaptainTruth Thursday #18

No major aggregator excludes all Red Wave pollsters Fiendish Thingy Thursday #33

Which is why I ignore major aggregators like the two you mentioned... CaptainTruth Thursday #47

Check out VoteHub. PAMod Thursday #54

This looks more realistic Rstrstx Thursday #57

Graded by who? Fiendish Thingy Thursday #58

Interesting snip: Dennis Donovan Thursday #4

How, exactly, does "noise" differ among the polls? What is "noise?" nt LAS14 Thursday #10

Here's an old article from 2018: Dennis Donovan Thursday #15

Interesting article, but it doesn't tell me what "noise" is.... LAS14 Thursday #19

Well, I'll try cally Thursday #30

Thanks! So if a poll has noise that doesn't necessarily mean a poll is bad, right? nt LAS14 Thursday #48

ALL polls have noise, more or less, so yes, not necessarily bad. . . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #50

Yes cally Thursday #56

Voters' intentions form a signal. "Noise" is an engineering term meaning anything corrupting a signal. Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #31

Thanks. nt LAS14 Thursday #49

It's all those manipulated, faked GOP polls Farmer-Rick Thursday #23

yeah, I've seen that. Very curious discrepancy. LymphocyteLover Thursday #42

Also interesting data on split ticket dweller Thursday #5

OMG! I didn't realize Kamala was losing in every swing states on RCP and most on 538. Doodley Thursday #7

It reflects a recent flood of Republican-leaning polls meant to influence the averages. SunSeeker Thursday #21

Yes!!! wolfie001 Thursday #34

Well, I guess that's one way to put your thumb on the scale. calimary Thursday #41

Real Clear Politics is itself a Republican leaning organization. lees1975 Thursday #37

Might be worth looking at Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg OnDoutside Thursday #52

This is one point I. Very uncertain of -- Robinson is simply soooo terrible that I'm willing to bet LauraInLA Thursday #8

Yes, NC doesn't make sense. In fact, very little of the polling data makes sense. A lot of people are saying Trump is LymphocyteLover Thursday #43

Very interesting GusBob Thursday #6

Are the Vantage number an average, or the results of the latest poll? LAS14 Thursday #9

I'm unclear on this, as well, but they claim they're getting data from 40k responses per state per year with an LauraInLA Thursday #11

Looks to be the latest numbers but MontanaFarmer Thursday #28

I hope they're right. Martin68 Thursday #12

My husband's take: LauraInLA Thursday #13

Apparently this org has arisen from an Entrepreneurial Accelerator Program. LauraInLA Thursday #14

It sounds to me like GusBob Thursday #17

Well, the orange fatso is an insane shitbag so...... wolfie001 Thursday #16

NC will be an interesting case study dsc Thursday #20

Are you telling me that talking about Arnold Palmer's penis is not a winning campaign strategy? Ray Bruns Thursday #22

It's "they're eating the dogs" Farmer-Rick Thursday #24

I guess he's wondering where the geese went - how about Florida. kerry-is-my-prez Thursday #53

No doubt. Trumpy is lurching from major mistake to major mistake. n/t PatrickforB Thursday #26

This is very good information! Thank you. n/t PatrickforB Thursday #25

Never heard of them but it's interesting jgmiller Thursday #27

If these guys have gamed the pollsters, they will be top dog going forward bucolic_frolic Thursday #29

I don't understand Figure 7 Orange Buffoon Thursday #32

I've been doing my own own averages. At least half of the polls are RW. kerry-is-my-prez Thursday #35

Look at their data collection. lees1975 Thursday #36

Hubby and I voted today Katcat Thursday #38

Thanks for this! shotten99 Thursday #39

I don't buy that Harris is behind in AZ. And I don't buy her taking FL. They didn't list WI...seems odd PortTack Thursday #40

Later on in the article Vantage House says Trump unlikely to lose FL crimycarny 11 hrs ago #59

Political polling company Warpy Thursday #44

How did WI get replaced with FL in their list of 7? BWdem4life Thursday #45

Kick Coexist Thursday #46

Noone? Lol.... getagrip_already Thursday #51

It shouldn't be that close in the first place Dem4life1234 Thursday #55

Florida +3.7% for Harris? RidinWithHarris 10 hrs ago #60