"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House

[Farmer-Rick]

23. It's all those manipulated, faked GOP polls

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 03:45 PM - Edit history (1)

Here's what I read on another post.

It's the best explanation I have seen yet of why the polls are showing a tight race when it's clearly a Harris win.

"This time, because they started earlier and are producing more polls their polls are often only 1-2 points to the right of the polling average or independent polls. They are working the averages more carefully this time, over using the time and volume to move them gradually so the op is not as crude and as easy to see as last time. If Harris leads by 2.5 points and you drop 5 polls showing the race tied or her ahead by 1 or even 2 points the averages moves and it looks like she is losing altitude.

Consider this Tweet from one of the top analysts at 538. It is part of a thread referring to what was a very junky PA poll by TIPP.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16f8f964-36e2-4522-a702-7bbb12522595_898x328.png

(I couldn't copy the image but the link will take you to the tweet he's referring to.)

So here is 538 admitting that even something they consider a bad poll could move the average in PA by a tenth of a point. OK, red wave pollsters say, got it. Appreciate the tip! So I just need to produce more polls to move the average by a meaningful amount. Which is what they’ve done. If each of these polls moves the average by a tenth of a point then 16 of them in October in PA could have moved the average by 1.6 points - and poof a Harris lead becomes a tied race.

Elon Musk and primary political patron of JD Vance. Polymarket is buying product placement on sites and with influencers for their 2024 American election results even though NO AMERICAN CAN LEGALLY PARTICIPATE IN PROCESS THAT DETERMINES THE DATA. Polymarket is everywhere. Harry Enten higlights their data on CNN. Right wing influencers pump Polymarket maps showing Trump “winning” everyday. Nate Silver is an advisor to Polymarket. Elon and Twitter of course are pumping this stuff, hard."

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-and-her-campaign-are-working

They are creating a Red Mirage with these manipulated polls. They use-to NOT do sooooo many. Now they do them daily. So the sites that aggregate polling data are very likely very wrong.

If you have a pollster you think is truly honest with no pressure to rig a poll or 2 for the filthy-rich oligarchs, then that is probably your best bet of getting good polling results. I'm sure the Harris campaign has them.

The aggregate sites are too easily manipulated, no matter how well they claim to weigh the polls they put in the mix. That weighing itself is put a slight bias into the polling results.

And ignore the betting sites. If you're rich, dumping money into a betting site to create an appearance of Trump winning is easier than buying pollsters.