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ColinC

(10,330 posts) Sat Oct 26, 2024, 02:30 PM 16 hrs ago

If your gut says Trump will win [View all]

Don't trust it. Our guts are severely damaged after getting punched in it so many times by surprising and horrible election outcomes. Even Nate Silver says not to trust anybodys gut. Not even his.

39 replies

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Highlight:

If your gut says Trump will win [View all] ColinC 16 hrs ago OP

Nate's guts are only feeling one thing: Gaytano70 16 hrs ago #1

Im not a Nate Silver hater and feel that the animosity towards him is a kill the messenger type response ColinC 16 hrs ago #2

Silver isn't a pollster Deminpenn 16 hrs ago #5

Yeah he uses the same method with polls as baseball. ColinC 16 hrs ago #7

So, GIGO Deminpenn 16 hrs ago #8

I imagine there is some value in it. ColinC 16 hrs ago #9

So if he's right 40% of the time COL Mustard 15 hrs ago #18

I mean. Same as if he were right 100% of the time ColinC 14 hrs ago #19

Baseball players and weather forecasters COL Mustard 14 hrs ago #22

Yep ColinC 13 hrs ago #28

Goddess knows why our weather guessers, ooops, forecasters, are still employed. niyad 10 hrs ago #38

He has his plusses Nasruddin 15 hrs ago #12

We're in a better position than they are. pat_k 13 hrs ago #32

See that's the problem. If he simply told what the polls were saying, he might not be too bad. Wiz Imp 11 hrs ago #34

Anybody whose gut is telling them this needs to get off their ass and GOTV. live love laugh 16 hrs ago #3

We all can do something. I convinced one of my undecided friends in MI to vote for Harris after him telling me for weeks ColinC 16 hrs ago #4

I think every vote will count COL Mustard 14 hrs ago #23

And if you feel the abject and deep pain that is fascist fomented fear applegrove 16 hrs ago #6

There are a lot of people like that who can be swayed with strong personal connections. ColinC 16 hrs ago #10

Go Colin! Go Colin! Go Colin! applegrove 16 hrs ago #11

Thanks Applegrove!! ColinC 15 hrs ago #16

My gut tells me trump will lose the vote but... S/V Loner 15 hrs ago #13

The courts won't help him. Elessar Zappa 14 hrs ago #20

I only hope it doesn't go into Congress COL Mustard 14 hrs ago #24

Thanks. I thought it was that burrito I ate. surfered 15 hrs ago #14

Part of my disease profile is IBS, so my gut says rude things to me all the time Warpy 15 hrs ago #15

Polls are less accurate because AdamGG 15 hrs ago #17

If your gut says Trump will win, go to urgent care immediately. milestogo 14 hrs ago #21

So long as I breath I will do what I have to do to see Harris win LostOne4Ever 13 hrs ago #25

Definitely do not trust Nate Silver Tweedy 13 hrs ago #26

Try a little Mme. Defarge 13 hrs ago #27

Nate Silver Metaphorical 13 hrs ago #29

We're in a better position than they are. Believe it. It's True. pat_k 13 hrs ago #30

The only thing my gut tells me is that Harris has a better chance than polling would make it seem, but not the... RidinWithHarris 13 hrs ago #31

I hope everyone is right Ontheboundry 12 hrs ago #33

All true. ColinC 11 hrs ago #36

My gut just polished off a pint of Denali Extreme Moose Tracks. Xavier Breath 11 hrs ago #35

If your gut is sensing an Orange Bastard, maybe it is time for a big b.m. SoFlaBro 11 hrs ago #37

Two words: Alan Lichtman. That is all. Dem4life1970 6 hrs ago #39