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Response to snot (Original post)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 10:44 PM

9. Tough to pull off in PA

I have a feeling that the window for this kind of change has probably closed in my state of PA.Prior to the last election the GOP controlled the State Senate 30-20.In the November 2012 election,the democrats picked up Senate seats in Erie,Harrisburg and Pittsburgh and the Senate is now 27-23 in favor of the GOP.In the State House of Representatives there was again a gain by the Democrats but not as large as the Senate (went from 112-91 to 110-93 in favor of GOP). This kind of tight margins make it hard for the change in law to happen and I just do not see the passion for this. It will only serve to increase Democratic turnout in a non-presidential year putting a lot of GOP held seats in play. The margin in PA in the Presidential election was 5 points (52-47) and a GOP candidate with moderate appeal can still hope to win the state. President Bush got 48.5 % of the vote in 2004 and with more effort could have carried the state. Not all Democratic candidates of the future are going to be able to match President Obama's appeal.
Gov.Corbett is not very popular a this time with ratings in the 30s and has no appetite for this fight.

Wisconsin surprises me because like PA it can be potentially won by a Republican candidate.President bush lost his 2 elections by 5000 and 21000 votes respectively. Again I repeat that every Democratic candidate is not President Obama and even in the last election the margin was only 6.5 points.A 4 point shift can flip this state to the GOP candidate and the state's entire votes to his column.Imagine a republican candidate work hard to win these 2 states only to give up 10-15 electoral votes to the Democratic candidate and end up @ 265! Remember that the Democratic candidate will start off with a much larger cushion while the GOP candidate has to thread the needle

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