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In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Senate Win in 2014 [View all]Gothmog
(147,275 posts)38. I love Nate but he is not perfect
If Nate was always correct, the GOP would be in control of the Senate today http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/senate-democrats-nate-silver-forecast
The Monday memo, written by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil, is full of praise for Silver but also picks out four Senate races where Democrats won even though Silver said Republicans would claim the seats: Montana and North Dakota in 2012 and Colorado and Nevada in 2010.
Cecil writes:All four are senators today because they were superior candidates running superior campaign organizations who made their elections a choice between the two candidates on the ballot. Only three Democratic incumbent senators have lost reelection in the last ten years, and our incumbents are once again prepared and ready
We don't minimize the challenges ahead. Rather, we view the latest projection as a reminder that we have a challenging map and important work still to do in order to preserve our majority.
A day earlier Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com released a new forecast saying that Republicans had a roughly 60 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control of the chamber.
This projection is only accurate as of today's polls. The election is not for several months and a great deal will change
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LoL. just cos the data doesn't fit our desire, doesnt mean he is wrong. nt
La Lioness Priyanka
Mar 2014
#40
I guarantee you didn't make accurate predications for all the states...
Gravitycollapse
Mar 2014
#27
Probabilities generally only matter according to their predictive power.
Gravitycollapse
Mar 2014
#31
I predict a lot of politicians begging for donations while promising to get the money out politics.
Tierra_y_Libertad
Mar 2014
#28