General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: So if the Democrats lose the senate. [View all]tabbycat31
(6,336 posts)Many predicted the Democrats losing the Senate in 2012 and it would be worse this year due to the cycle and the map (there's no Blue State GOP seats that we could pick up). Politics is cyclical. The GOP was favored to pick up the senate in 2012 too but look at what happened. Going into 2012, it was really only predicted that the Democrats would gain 1 seat (MA) since it was the class of Dem Year 2006. Nobody could have predicted Claire McCaskill holding on and picking up Indiana.
There's a lot of red state Democrats up this year who's states have only gotten redder (Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu) and some retirements that give the GOP an opportunity. That's life and the cyclical nature of politics. The map didn't look good for Democrats going into this cycle because this is the class of 2008 (good Dem year and possibly the last of the ticket splitting) up.
However, 2016 looks like a good year for Democrats in the Senate. This is the tea party class of 2010 that will be up in a presidential year. 34 seats are up, and only 10 of them are Democrats. Only two of the Democratic seats look competitive (NV, CO). Easily flippable are IL, PA, WI. Others that will be competitive-- NH, NC, FL, OH, IA. Even if we just pick up the 3 easies and 1 more, that's a gain of 4.
According to Wiki (not the most reliable source but a good quick look up) there are no retirements (which will not be announced until after the midterms). I believe Barbara Boxer is retiring but I don't see a state as blue as CA electing a GOP senator. Other potential retirements are John McCain. Then there's running for other office (only David Vitter is a declared gubernatorial candidate for 2015), but Rand Paul is all but declared as a presidential candidate.
Another truth be told--- I see the GOP splitting before the Dems splitting--- you have Mike Huckabee threatening to leave the party over marriage equality. You don't have liberals like Elizabeth Warren threatening to leave the Democratic party.