Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in most polls of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest. Four years ago, in August 2011, Mitt Romney began with the lead in polls of Republican voters, but he would be surpassed by the end of the month by Rick Perry, the first of four Republican rivals who would at some point overtake Romney in national polling averages.
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But the problem isnt just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; its also that they describe a fiction. I dont mean to suggest that Donald Trumps support in the polls is fake. I have no doubt that some people really love him or that hed be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the election these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways:
*They contemplate a vote today, but were currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
*They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
*They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
*They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
*They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.
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Another trade-off comes from entrenching your appeal with a narrow segment of the electorate at the expense of broadening your coalition. Ive seen a lot written about how Trumps candidacy heralds a new type of populism. If it does, this type of populism isnt actually very popular. Trumps overall favorability ratings2 are miserable, about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and they havent improved (whatever gains hes made among Republicans have been offset by his declines among independents and Democrats). To some extent, the 30 percent may like Trump precisely because they know the 60 percent dont like him. More power to the 30 percent: I have plenty of my own issues with the political establishment. But running a campaign that caters to (for lack of a better term) contrarians is exactly how you ensure that youll never reach a majority.