There's A Masive Restaurant Industry Bubble, and It's About To Burst

[MineralMan]

7. In the Twin Cities of MN, where I live, restaurants open and close

with almost predictable regularity. Every sous chef in a restaurant wants to open his or her own place. So, they do. Underfunded and faced with massive competition, most last about six months and close their doors. A new restaurant opens in the space shortly thereafter.

Recently, we lost several "fine dining" places, due to the fickleness of restaurant-goers. My rule has always been to avoid new restaurants, which always seem to open with good reviews and impossible reservation lists. By the time that initial rush is over, you can book a table, but there's a fair chance that the new place will already be closed by the time your reservation date comes up.

These days, all those sous chefs seem to be opening food trucks, which create an immediate sensation. Next, they open a small restaurant selling the same food, basically. Then, they close the restaurant because the trend they started is over, with a new trendy place opening to steal the limited supply of diners.

At one time, about 20 years ago, I had an idea for a restaurant in the California are where I lived. It was going to be a "small plate" place, a trend which hadn't really developed yet. I had created a range of international-themed dishes and tested them on guests in my home. It was a good idea. However, after researching the restaurant business, I decided to pass on the idea. I didn't like my chances with the new concept. I'm glad I decided to pass.