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Showing Original Post only (View all)Black Voters Arent Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party [View all]
Last edited Wed May 31, 2017, 12:24 PM - Edit history (1)
The special election in Georgias 6th Congressional District is the first major test of the Democratic resistance to President Trump. In one sense, the results of the first round in April were promising for the party. Thanks to an impressive Democratic turnout, Jon Ossoff, the Democrat who advanced to this months runoff, almost cracked 50 percent of the vote in a district thats nearly 10 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole.1
The result, moreover, was a reversal of some turnout trends we saw in 2016, when President Trump outperformed the polls on the back of higher turnout in Republican-leaning areas. And if the runoff election on June 20 features a similar electorate, the race will be too close to call.
But the Georgia 6 April primary was a continuation of some 2016 turnout trends too trends that should worry Democrats. In 2016, turnout among whites was up across the country, and in highly educated areas like the 6th District in the suburbs of Atlanta. This redounded to Democrats advantage. At the same time, black turnout was down precipitously, from 66 percent in 2012 to 59 percent in 2016. This black-white turnout gap continued in the first round of Georgias special election, where the Democrats got impressive turnout levels from all races and ethnicities except African-Americans.
Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that groups historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Its possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more of a return to the old status quo, Democrats will still have to grapple with these turnout levels going forward, and there are powerful lessons we can learn from the partys failure to raise or maintain previous black turnout levels in 2016. Painting Trump as a bigot did not motivate more African-Americans to vote, in 2016 or in the Georgia 6th. Hope and shared identity seem to be much more effective turnout motivators than fear.
Elections are decided by two chief factors: Who turns out and which candidate they vote for. Its been pointed out that turnout alone did not decide the 2016 election and that the key factor in Trumps success with groups like the white working class was not that he got way more of them to the polls than Mitt Romney did, but simply that he won a much higher share of their votes.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-arent-turning-out-for-the-post-obama-democratic-party/
Latinos are not as Dem-leaning as African-Americans. We have our work cut out for us on inspiring turnout. It's not just the voter suppression. It's not just the threat of Trump destroying our country. It's the challenge of inspiring people to take the time and effort to vote for our candidates.
EDIT: It has been brought to my attention that the opinion piece was written by a GOP operative with a very different agenda. Take what you want with a grain of salt, but we still need to make sure that our people want to vote, and are not denied the right to vote. Our party has work to do to fight voter suppression tactics and to inspire our people to vote for our candidates.
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Black Voters Arent Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party [View all]
IronLionZion
May 2017
OP
We did try , we tried to tell people to ignore the email stories , that though flawed
Ohioblue22
May 2017
#8
"Improve our message" is EXACTLY what Republicans have said is what they need, when they lose. If
WinkyDink
May 2017
#51
Guess it's time to blame the black guy again. Ever heard of Interstate Crosscheck and...
brush
May 2017
#32
And all those women who want "reproductive rights" and those LGBTQs wanting to "Pee"
ehrnst
May 2017
#39
I think the Supreme Court is going to preside over the Ohio voter purge.......
a kennedy
May 2017
#11
In Michigan, 45* "won" by 13K votes; 188K were purged, mainly from Detroit & other urban areas
catbyte
May 2017
#79
With voter suppression and the attack on POC by law enforcement...not sure that it
Demsrule86
May 2017
#6
First of all we don't have the money to do that...secondly we did contact every Democrat
Demsrule86
May 2017
#64
Yeah, these "blame the black guy" threads always say AA voting is down without saying...
brush
May 2017
#34
I don't think we'll be able to use the excuse "purged voters" if Ossoff loses (let's hope not).
Hoyt
May 2017
#15
Good pick-up:Echelon Insights, launched in summer of 2014 by top Republican digital strategist...
FreeStateDemocrat
May 2017
#25
Or our votes are being suppressed? These articles hate to SHOW the effects of voter suppression on..
uponit7771
May 2017
#22
Any analysis of POC turnout that doesn't look at voter suppression is incomplete.
WhiskeyGrinder
May 2017
#29
This is an article from a republican stratigist, whose job it is to spew republican talking
still_one
May 2017
#37
I wanna see the Post-Obama Democratic Party turning out for black voters. n/t
Mister Ed
May 2017
#30
This is from Patrick Ruffini, a republican strategist, whose job is to push republican talking
still_one
May 2017
#36
I am a liberal period end of story...but we will not win with the current platform.
Demsrule86
May 2017
#68
I want a progressive platform too...but the reality is very different...lofty goals.
Demsrule86
May 2017
#80
Our party definitely needs to show more attention to state races everywhere
IronLionZion
May 2017
#60
It is not enough money which is why we lost. We should have more money going forward.
Demsrule86
May 2017
#74
Interesting...but now is not the time for big Democratic shakeups...we really do need to use what
Demsrule86
May 2017
#91
In Georgia where Dems don't even run in some areas, I wrote in 'yellow dog' sometimes
Demsrule86
May 2017
#87
A poster noted this is written by a Republican with an agenda...why did you post this?
Demsrule86
May 2017
#84
You used a right wing source, and that fact is disguised...you need at the very least to amend
Demsrule86
May 2017
#93
Black voters have carried water for the Democratic Party since the Civil Rights Act.
Blue_true
May 2017
#107