General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: So Tell Me, FUCKING AGAIN, How The Democratic Party Has To Change. [View all]rpannier
(24,598 posts)But let's be real as well
2017 was Virginia, New Jersey and a smattering of other races. There were no major cross the board races in states more favorable to Republicans.
Positives (outside of NJ and VA): Montana Mayor, Maine expansion of ACA and Washington State Legislative election
2018 features:
Every congressional district. The retirements help. As do the sagging fortunes of people like Issa.
That doesn't change 241-194. That's still a lot of seats to turn
In the Senate the republikkans are only defending 8 seats. 2 are retiring which helps. But, odds still say Tennessee remains in their hands no matter which asylum lunatic they run.
Outside of Nevada (and possibly Arizona) do you wish to point out which of the other states we will likely turn? Utah? Texas? Nebraska? Wyoming? Mississippi? Maine?
We're defending in North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Ohio and Florida.
There are always two schools on something like those; the first school says the power of incumbency is great. Manchin won by a fairly sizable margin four years ago. He isn't popular, but nor is he unpopular as far as I can tell. The other school of thought looks at how their House delegation looks and for three of those states it's all republikkan (ND, MT and West Virginia), though two of those states have only one rep. Florida cuts 16-11, Ohio 12-4.
While you can blame gerrymandering on those numbers looking like they do, it does not change that two years ago both states held senate races that were won by the republikkans with sizable majorities. Power of Incumbency vs Voting Trends.
And you can bring up voter suppression all you want, but all you've done is strengthen the case that we're in trouble in both states.
You're looking at one likely pick up, one possible pick up, 6 almost no chance in hell (though Cruz seems to be trying to screw himself over). While we have two in the very iffy column
As to change? Who knows. Depends on what you mean by change. Last night was great and it should be enjoyed. I check every few hours in hopes that one or more of the five open races for the HoD are called for us.
2018 is light years away (in political terms). Dead in the water politicians have risen and sure things have sunk.
Good for you keeping the polls open. But let's keep some perspective on reaching voters in less favorable areas.