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In reply to the discussion: Hillary Clinton Won 6 Out of 6 Coin Tosses Last Night. [View all]happyslug
(14,779 posts)122. Odds of being hit by lighting is 1 out of 1200
http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml
As to being hit by a meteor, the record is thin, one case in the last 2000 years (and that was in China more then 1000 years ago). Given that low rate or actual hits (data points), they is NOT enough data to give any statistical calculation as to the risk, i.e. the risk could be one in a trillion trillion all we know (we need more data points, i.e. more then one person being hit in recorded history).
http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/back2.html
As to lotteries, that is up to each lottery (provided they are honest). In the daily number the odds are one in a thousand of winning (Assuming three digits lotteries). Other lotteries with bigger jackpots having higher odds. Thus if that ancient China resident was playing a lottery at the time he was hit by that meteor, and he won that lottery, we would have one data point to start working out the statistics but then we will have to wait for a second person to be hit by a meteor and win the lottery to figure out the odds.
As to being hit by a meteor, the record is thin, one case in the last 2000 years (and that was in China more then 1000 years ago). Given that low rate or actual hits (data points), they is NOT enough data to give any statistical calculation as to the risk, i.e. the risk could be one in a trillion trillion all we know (we need more data points, i.e. more then one person being hit in recorded history).
http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/back2.html
As to lotteries, that is up to each lottery (provided they are honest). In the daily number the odds are one in a thousand of winning (Assuming three digits lotteries). Other lotteries with bigger jackpots having higher odds. Thus if that ancient China resident was playing a lottery at the time he was hit by that meteor, and he won that lottery, we would have one data point to start working out the statistics but then we will have to wait for a second person to be hit by a meteor and win the lottery to figure out the odds.
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One is extremely improbable (completely scoff worthy), the other could easily be expected.
GoneFishin
Feb 2016
#6
They weren't all a part of one sequence, though. They were different events, in different places.
Demit
Feb 2016
#46
Your are dealing with some very probability theory challenged individuals. No wonder this almost
GoneFishin
Feb 2016
#108
Two tenths of a percentage point is a win? It's all about lowering expectations, right?
Ned_Devine
Feb 2016
#52
I forgot to mention how Allegheny County PA decides such ties, it is by "Lots"
happyslug
Feb 2016
#139
I have a good friend that was struck by lightning twice (two separate occasions)
ALBliberal
Feb 2016
#104
Everywhere the Clintons go, there is greed, cheating and other controversy going on. Who wants
ViseGrip
Feb 2016
#18
Before I play any "game", I read the rules. If I don't like them I simply don't play.......
George II
Feb 2016
#54
If each coin toss was fair then the odds are 1 in 64. Most people would call that improbable.
eomer
Feb 2016
#30
No, you said it makes a difference whether one person or six people do the tosses.
eomer
Feb 2016
#97
So you agree then that the odds of Hillary winning all six tosses (if that was the case)
eomer
Feb 2016
#142
Now that the Sanders campaign knows how Hillary (Bill) is going to play the game
INdemo
Feb 2016
#33
Totally normal. Hillary is 1%er, wealthy always win. Through my 68 years of life, that is how it has
LiberalArkie
Feb 2016
#64
The person who wrote this article has no idea how the delegate totals are calculated
oberliner
Feb 2016
#66
THIS conspiracy theory is how I know Hillary won Iowa (well, besides the vote and delegate count).
Metric System
Feb 2016
#101
Fuzzy murky improbable events always favor the more right-leaning individuals.
GoneFishin
Feb 2016
#111
Coin-Toss Fact Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton
Agnosticsherbet
Feb 2016
#127