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In reply to the discussion: Post removed [View all]cannabis_flower
(3,779 posts)Has predicted every election right since 1984:
Since 1984, historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman has correctly guessed who would win the presidency, even President Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016.
Using keys or indicators to predict the nation's future leader, Lichtman's scale awards a true or false value to 13 statements. So long as six or more of these statements are true, the incumbent party stays in the White House. The keys factor in strength of the economy, incumbency, contests, policy changes, scandals, social unrest and even the charisma of the incumbents and challengers.
In an interview on "The Morning Show" with Kate Archer Kent, Lichtman explained that while elections conventionally are predicted by weighing the candidates relative to each other, his keys focus more on the record of the incumbent party.
Kate Archer Kent: Let's cut to the chase. Who are you predicting will win in November?
Allan Lichtman: Based upon my 13 keys to the White House, which gauge the strength and fulfillment of the party holding the White House, it takes six negative keys to predict their defeat. That would be Donald Trump and the Republicans. In late 2019, Trump only had four negative keys.
But his failed response to many crises that have arisen in 2020 has resulted in the most sudden and dramatic reversal of fortune in the history of the U.S. In the matter of a few months, three more keys have turned against the incumbent Trump. With seven negative keys against him, Trump is a predicted loser in his bid for reelection in November.
https://www.wpr.org/historian-who-correctly-predicted-every-presidential-election-1984-makes-2020-pick
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