Ending Wuhan's social distancing too soon may spur 'second wave' of COVID-19 in midsummer [View all]

[Judi Lynn]

By Rachael Rettner - Senior Writer an hour ago

The findings have implications for the rest of the world as COVID-19 cases continue to surge outside of China.

Social distancing measures in Wuhan, China — where the outbreak of the new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, began — likely reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and delayed the peak of the epidemic, according to a new study.

What's more, the findings suggest that if these measures — including school and workplace closures — are lifted too soon, a second wave of cases may occur in midsummer. However, keeping these measures in place until early April — which the city plans to do — and gradually resuming activities would likely delay this second wave of cases until the fall; giving the health care system much-need time to expand and respond to the epidemic, the authors said.

"The unprecedented measures the city of Wuhan has put in place to reduce social contacts in school and the workplace have helped to control the outbreak," study lead author Kiesha Prem, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the United Kingdom, said in a statement. "However, the city now needs to be really careful to avoid prematurely lifting physical distancing measures, because that could lead to an earlier secondary peak in cases. But if they relax the restrictions gradually, this is likely to both delay and flatten the peak."

More:
https://www.livescience.com/social-distancing-wuhan.html