Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower [View all]
Beware, Vladimir Putin: Spring is coming. And when it does, youll lose much of whatever leverage you had left.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html
Incidentally, one puzzle about Russias pre-Ukraine image of strength was how a kleptocratic regime managed to have an efficient, effective military. Maybe it didnt?
Still, Putin has one remaining ace in the hole: Feckless policies have made Europe deeply dependent on Russian natural gas, potentially inhibiting the Wests response to his aggression.
But Europe mainly burns gas for heat; gas consumption is 2.5 times higher in the winter than it is in the summer. Well, winter will soon be over and the European Union has time to prepare for another winter without Russian gas if its willing to make some hard choices.
As I said, Putin may well take Kyiv. But even if he does, he will have made himself weaker, not stronger. Russia now stands revealed as a Potemkin superpower, with far less real strength than meets the eye.