STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 27, 2016 [View all]

[Chichiri]

Posting this early because it's after midnight, and because insomnia. Don't forget to vote in the poll!

Reprinted from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com with permission of the author (me).


[font color="blue"]Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).


Latest Results

Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +5.


Next Primary

South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +20.



[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5).
Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Florida (Quinnipiac): Clinton 59, Sanders 33 (Clinton +26).
Virginia (Roanoke College): Clinton 50, Sanders 33 (Clinton +17).
South Carolina (Emerson): Clinton 60, Sanders 37 (Clinton +23).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 68, Sanders 22 (Clinton +46).


Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)

South Carolina: Clinton 67.0, Sanders 28.7.
Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.8, Sanders 23.7.
Massachusetts: Clinton 52.2, Sanders 44.8.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.7, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.1, Clinton 11.6.
Virginia: Clinton 63.5, Sanders 33.1.
Michigan: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.8.
Florida: Clinton 67.3, Sanders 30.0.


Current Endorsement Score (538)

Clinton 474, Sanders 3.



[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Virginia Projection: Trump 40, Rubio 30, Cruz 15.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



[font color="black"]Comments
Happy South Carolina Day! 53 pledged delegates will be awarded today. Polls close at 7:00 PM EST. We can expect the major networks to call the state for Hillary at 7:00:02 or thereabouts -- but of course, that's not the question.

The question is, how much will she win by? 538's median projection, which Bernie needs to beat to start catching up to Hillary, is Hillary +20. That is, if Bernie comes within 20 points of Hillary, he should get the delegates he needs. The Cook Political Report scorecard, which takes currently declared superdelegates into account and therefore is not quite as accurate (because the superdelegates will most likely end up supporting whoever wins the most pledged delegates) puts the delegate target at Hillary 27, Bernie 26.

If the current 538 projection holds, Hillary will earn 36 delegates from South Carolina, leaving 17 for Bernie. This will give Hillary a total of 88 pledged delegates, and Bernie a total of 68.

To be honest, that's not a great margin for either candidate's supporters. Bernie fans would obviously like for him to have more delegates, and Hillary fans want the primary to be over with already so that she can turn the full force of her rhetoric toward the Republicans. If the projections for Super Tuesday hold, however, and if Colorado and Minnesota (still both living in a black box, which is hell for numbers wonks like me!) don't swing dramatically in Bernie's favor, the margin will be much larger on Wednesday morning.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Did you hear about the Norwegian bird analyzer? It Scandinavian!


[font color="green"]What's your prediction for today? Vote below![font color="black"]

9 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Time expired
	Hillary will get fewer than 27 (of 53) delegates.
	0 (0%)
	Hillary will get 27-30 delegates.
	0 (0%)
	Hillary will get 31-34 delegates.
	1 (11%)
	Hillary will get 35-37 delegates.
	4 (44%)
	Hillary will get 38-40 delegates.
	4 (44%)
	Hillary will get 41-44 delegates.
	0 (0%)
	Hillary will get more than 44 delegates.
	0 (0%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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