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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 2, 2021, 09:34 PM

7. Yes, any long period (decade or more) with an end point of now looks great

Vanguard, for example expects a 2.4%-4.3% annualized return on equities over the next decade (3.35% is the midpoint), and Schwab also has about the same forecast

Here's what Google served up on Vanguard, an October issue, there might be something later... but anyway


because of very high valuations due to the factors you mention, and so interest rates suck on the alternative investment: bonds, CDs, etc. (in large part because of Federal Reserve QE action).

And no, we don't know the future, we could be at the beginning of a period for U.S. equities that make the Nikkei's experience look like a walk in the park.

And yes, the mid-60's to early 80's period was a long and difficult time for stocks. As were the 20's and 30's.

I remember "The Death Of Equities" Business Week Aug. 13, 1979 cover page all too well.


For a longer term perspective, I Imgur'd this graph from Yahoo Finance at near the bottom of the Covid crash. I try hard to keep the longer term perspective in mind. Those were some mighty frightful crashes. The thing is, after several doublings, a 50% "crash" just gets rid of one of those doublings.


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