Chinese nuclear disaster 'highly probable' by 2030 [View all]

[kristopher]

The headline is sensationalistic, but the argument behind it is completely valid and it shows that risk assessment methods used by the nuclear industry have been demonstrated to be inadequate.

Chinese nuclear disaster 'highly probable' by 2030
He Zuoxiu

25th October 2013

As the UK prepares to build a fleet of new nuclear power stations with Chinese capital and expertise, a former state nuclear expert warns: China itself is heading for nuclear catastrophe.

To reduce costs, Chinese designs often cut back on safety.
Some members of the nuclear power industry rely too much on theoretical calculations, when only experience can provide real accuracy.

The lifetime of nuclear reactors is calculated in "reactor-years". One reactor year means one reactor operating for one year. The world's 443 nuclear power plants have been running for a total of 14,767 reactor-years, during which time there have been 23 accidents involving a reactor core melting. That’s one major accident every 642 reactor years.

But according to the design requirements, an accident of that scale should only happen once every 20,000 reactor years. The actual incidence is 32 times higher than the theory allows.

Some argue this criticism is unfair....

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2133281/chinese_nuclear_disaster_highly_probable_by_2030.html