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Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: NASCAR hits 5 million miles on 15% Ethanol blend, with 20% less emissions... [View all]Bill USA
(6,436 posts)33. Earth Warming Faster than Predicted
http://news.sciencemag.org/2012/03/earth-warming-faster-expected
(emphasis my own)
By 2050, global average temperature could be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than it was just a couple of decades ago, according to a new study that seeks to address the largest sources of uncertainty in current climate models. That's substantially higher than estimates produced by other climate analyses, suggesting that Earth's climate could warm much more quickly than previously thought.
~~
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Daniel Rowlands, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, and his colleagues took a stab at addressing the largest sources of short-term climate uncertainty by modifying a version of one climate model used by the United Kingdom's meteorological agency. In their study, the researchers tweaked the parameters that influence three factors in the model: the sensitivity of climate to changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the rate at which oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere, and the amount of cooling from light-scattering aerosols in the atmosphere.
Then the team analyzed the results of thousands of climate simulationseach of which had a slightly different combination of parametersthat covered the years between 1920 and 2080, Rowlands says. All of the simulations assumed that future concentrations of greenhouse gases would rise from today's 392 parts per million to 520 ppm by 2050. Each of the runs also allowed for variations in solar activity (which would affect how much the sun's radiation warms Earth) and rates of volcanic activity (which would influence the concentrations of planet-cooling sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere).
The team discarded results of simulations that didn't match observations of regional climate in more than 20 land areas and ocean basins from 1960 to today. Of those that passed this test, those considered statistically most likelythe two-thirds of those that best matched previous climate observationssuggest that global average temperature in 2050 will be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than the global average measured between 1961 and 1990. All of the simulations that matched recent climate patterns suggested warming would be at least 1°C, the researchers report online today in Nature Geoscience.
(more)
[font size="3"]
Give estimate of number of years to achieve renewable electric power fueled transportation.[/font]
(emphasis my own)
By 2050, global average temperature could be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than it was just a couple of decades ago, according to a new study that seeks to address the largest sources of uncertainty in current climate models. That's substantially higher than estimates produced by other climate analyses, suggesting that Earth's climate could warm much more quickly than previously thought.
~~
~~
Daniel Rowlands, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, and his colleagues took a stab at addressing the largest sources of short-term climate uncertainty by modifying a version of one climate model used by the United Kingdom's meteorological agency. In their study, the researchers tweaked the parameters that influence three factors in the model: the sensitivity of climate to changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the rate at which oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere, and the amount of cooling from light-scattering aerosols in the atmosphere.
Then the team analyzed the results of thousands of climate simulationseach of which had a slightly different combination of parametersthat covered the years between 1920 and 2080, Rowlands says. All of the simulations assumed that future concentrations of greenhouse gases would rise from today's 392 parts per million to 520 ppm by 2050. Each of the runs also allowed for variations in solar activity (which would affect how much the sun's radiation warms Earth) and rates of volcanic activity (which would influence the concentrations of planet-cooling sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere).
The team discarded results of simulations that didn't match observations of regional climate in more than 20 land areas and ocean basins from 1960 to today. Of those that passed this test, those considered statistically most likelythe two-thirds of those that best matched previous climate observationssuggest that global average temperature in 2050 will be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than the global average measured between 1961 and 1990. All of the simulations that matched recent climate patterns suggested warming would be at least 1°C, the researchers report online today in Nature Geoscience.
(more)
[font size="3"]
Give estimate of number of years to achieve renewable electric power fueled transportation.[/font]
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NASCAR hits 5 million miles on 15% Ethanol blend, with 20% less emissions... [View all]
Bill USA
Feb 2014
OP
By "respected" I was referring to Sientific American, which is a respected journal
BlueStreak
Feb 2014
#12
Wind, Solar, and conservation. All are better than converting perfectly good food into carbon
BlueStreak
Feb 2014
#18
we are talking about the GHG emissions from the light transportation sector. Of course I am for all
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#19
you have not stated a technology and its GHG reduction numbers. I need estimated or recorded GHG
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#26
you haven't established that food has been taken out of the supply chain. Our farmers are producing
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#20
No it's not beside the point, unless you don't mind full blown AGW accelerating until we can't rein
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#21
crop support payments to corporate farms is as abominable as tax breaks for huge oil companies..but
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#28
"not nearly enough"?: 29 million Priuses needed to achieve Ethanol’s current GHG emissions reduction
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#30
How about a 67% GHG emissions reduction for ethanol. The ethanol enabled Direct Injection engine ..
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#31
California's love affair with Big Oil - letters from a Corporate Feudalist State.
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#13
You aren't going to get past 12-15% efficiency for internal combustion engines.
kristopher
Feb 2014
#22
Pleasegive timeframe for achieving this bioelectric transportation. You're running out of time.
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#27
The tank to wheels of ICE isn't going to get above about 18% and avg will be lower.
kristopher
Feb 2014
#29
James Hansen a huckster? Give timeframe for achieving bioelectric light transportation..# of years..
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#32
Give the number of years investing in dead end technologies that preserve fossil fuels...
kristopher
Feb 2014
#35
compared to hybrids and PHEVS? I computed 20 years for Priuses (i.e. hybrids) to equal Ethanol's GHG
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#42
you're out of your mind: "preserve fossil fuels"? the Oil industry is fanatically fighting ethanol..
Bill USA
Mar 2014
#47
alcohol fuel with turbocharging/supercharging has been shown to achieve 40% Brake thermal efficiency
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#34
What subsidy? The VEETC ended in 2011. You've drifted off again into your own private world of
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#37
29 million Priuses needed to achieve Ethanol’s current GHG reduction. Cost: $232 Billion
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#38
You are really in your own little world aren't you. Subsidies are not needed by ethanol. It's been
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#43
I'm pointing out GHG reductions now it will take 29 million hybrids to achieve maybe in 20 yrs.
Bill USA
Feb 2014
#44
Koplow talks about hypotheticals "under some ....proposals" whose possibilities evaporated in 2011
Bill USA
Mar 2014
#45
What polices are you advocating for - spell it out and quit playing silly games.
kristopher
Mar 2014
#46
again quoting from a 2009 article. the ethanol mandate does not 'cost' us anything,as oil ind says,
Bill USA
Mar 2014
#49
your linked article calculates subsidies for 2008 - 2022. Subsidies for corn ethanol ended 1/1/2012
Bill USA
Mar 2014
#51
I've been noticing a bunch of empty seats at NASAR tracks over the last few years.
unhappycamper
Feb 2014
#2