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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver's 538: Hillary still favored to win Iowa and NH [View all]Jarqui
(10,131 posts)29. Unfortunately, folks looking for the quick answer don't fully inform themselves
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/
That one sentence doesn't replace what Nate says at that link about what is behind his analysis. It underscores that before drawing too much conclusion incorrectly like the simplistic top post in this thread, one needs to look a little deeper at what Nate is trying to tell people with this information. Nate should stick to doing what he's doing. People should not stick to interpreting Nate incorrectly.
Normally, I'd lean more towards Nate's polls plus model in the general election. In the primary, I'd currently lean more towards the polls only model because things like endorsements and national polling are in Clinton's favor because Sanders is coming on - folks do not know him and what he stands for well nationally yet. If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, that's going to change - something like it did for Obama. In fact, Sanders good results recently are starting to change the mainstream's view and coverage of his candidacy. I think that will continue to drive Nate's results further towards Sanders over the next couple of weeks.
"Therefore, we think the models (polls-only model & polls-plus model) are more useful when looked at together."
That one sentence doesn't replace what Nate says at that link about what is behind his analysis. It underscores that before drawing too much conclusion incorrectly like the simplistic top post in this thread, one needs to look a little deeper at what Nate is trying to tell people with this information. Nate should stick to doing what he's doing. People should not stick to interpreting Nate incorrectly.
Normally, I'd lean more towards Nate's polls plus model in the general election. In the primary, I'd currently lean more towards the polls only model because things like endorsements and national polling are in Clinton's favor because Sanders is coming on - folks do not know him and what he stands for well nationally yet. If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, that's going to change - something like it did for Obama. In fact, Sanders good results recently are starting to change the mainstream's view and coverage of his candidacy. I think that will continue to drive Nate's results further towards Sanders over the next couple of weeks.
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Did you notice the trend in that top chart on the page you linked to for NH?
Motown_Johnny
Jan 2016
#47
Don't you think he is aware of that? He wouldn't risk his reputation for Hillary.eom
lunamagica
Jan 2016
#39
Yep! I think she will win both. They will share/split delegates but she will win.
leftofcool
Jan 2016
#2
Sanders TROUNCES Clinton w/Indies. IF Clinton gets the nom we lose the general.Period.
Indepatriot
Jan 2016
#6
Yes! We still have two more weeks till Iowa and 53/47 in N.H. Which is still even odds!!!..
Pauldg47
Jan 2016
#67
I'm not clinging. Hillary will win at least one of those states regardless of today's polls.
RandySF
Jan 2016
#9
New York State is only ~60 miles away from New Hampshire (at it's closest point)
Motown_Johnny
Jan 2016
#48
Thats based on current polling and not taking in account the trend toward Sanders
Quixote1818
Jan 2016
#18
You can look at elections 50 years back and if it is trending toward a candidate at the end
Quixote1818
Jan 2016
#20
Thanks for posting. But I don't know about NH and I think that even if she lost both it wouldn't be
Number23
Jan 2016
#24
By lying and trying to tell people he wants to destroy Obamacare and Medicare of course.
Kentonio
Jan 2016
#31
How else exactly do you suggest building the economy enough to start paying back that debt?
Kentonio
Jan 2016
#45
Despite the unemployment rate, America was recovering from the Great Depression years before WW2.
Kentonio
Jan 2016
#59
Then Bernie Sanders supporters should keep donating, volunteering, and spreading the word
Eric J in MN
Jan 2016
#27
That is basically the same model he has used to predict the last four elections.
DemocratSinceBirth
Jan 2016
#46