2016 Postmortem

lunamagica

(9,967 posts)

50. We'll see soon enough. eom

Reply to Motown_Johnny (Reply #47)

Wed Jan 13, 2016, 10:18 AM

Jan 2016

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Nate Silver's 538: Hillary still favored to win Iowa and NH [View all] RandySF Jan 2016 OP

Even when she is 14% behind in New Hampshire they think she will win? Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #1

And then maybe certain DUers will quit hauling Nate Silver John Poet Jan 2016 #23

Unless he is right. eom lunamagica Jan 2016 #40

Did you notice the trend in that top chart on the page you linked to for NH? Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #47

We'll see soon enough. eom lunamagica Jan 2016 #50

Don't you think he is aware of that? He wouldn't risk his reputation for Hillary.eom lunamagica Jan 2016 #39

This message was self-deleted by its author Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #43

It is based on the theory that most NH voters make up their minds after IA Godhumor Jan 2016 #53

Yep! I think she will win both. They will share/split delegates but she will win. leftofcool Jan 2016 #2

If the Indies flock to the GOP mess, then Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #3

Sanders TROUNCES Clinton w/Indies. IF Clinton gets the nom we lose the general.Period. Indepatriot Jan 2016 #6

There is no Republican who could beat and of the Democrats Gore1FL Jan 2016 #11

Current polling shows otherwise. SheilaT Jan 2016 #21

That's their "polls plus" forecast. geek tragedy Jan 2016 #4

plus what... a "fudge factor"? reformist2 Jan 2016 #8

Nate Silver should stick to the polls only. LoveIsNow Jan 2016 #10

Unfortunately, folks looking for the quick answer don't fully inform themselves Jarqui Jan 2016 #29

What!? Adrahil Jan 2016 #68

Sure Nate, you are the guru, you are the best. :) 7wo7rees Jan 2016 #5

That article still hints the Hill can lose...read it closer !!! Pauldg47 Jan 2016 #22

Yes! We still have two more weeks till Iowa and 53/47 in N.H. Which is still even odds!!!.. Pauldg47 Jan 2016 #67

The Hillary die-hards still have Nate to cling to for false hope. reformist2 Jan 2016 #7

I'm not clinging. Hillary will win at least one of those states regardless of today's polls. RandySF Jan 2016 #9

Well she's not winning NH, I can tell you that... reformist2 Jan 2016 #14

Maybe, it helps to be a next door neighbor. RandySF Jan 2016 #16

Then how is Clinton catnhatnh Jan 2016 #17

oof! bunnies Jan 2016 #62

New York State is only ~60 miles away from New Hampshire (at it's closest point) Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #48

Doubtful. morningfog Jan 2016 #30

Romney and Karl Rove ignored the polling and Nate's predictions in 2012 Gothmog Jan 2016 #13

I love Nate Silver and math Gothmog Jan 2016 #12

......... marmar Jan 2016 #15

Thats based on current polling and not taking in account the trend toward Sanders Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #18

Bernie was trending up last summer too. Beating HRC handily. ucrdem Jan 2016 #19

You can look at elections 50 years back and if it is trending toward a candidate at the end Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #20

His model isn't static . DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #41

Thanks for posting. But I don't know about NH and I think that even if she lost both it wouldn't be Number23 Jan 2016 #24

The news cycle changes. Cassiopeia Jan 2016 #26

By lying and trying to tell people he wants to destroy Obamacare and Medicare of course. Kentonio Jan 2016 #31

inflation enid602 Jan 2016 #34

When a tremendous social works program brought America out of depression? Kentonio Jan 2016 #36

debt/GDP enid602 Jan 2016 #42

How else exactly do you suggest building the economy enough to start paying back that debt? Kentonio Jan 2016 #45

taxes enid602 Jan 2016 #49

So do nothing other than raise taxes to pay off debt? Kentonio Jan 2016 #58

carefully enid602 Jan 2016 #60

That's a charitable interpretation of history mythology Jan 2016 #57

Despite the unemployment rate, America was recovering from the Great Depression years before WW2. Kentonio Jan 2016 #59

I have absolutely no idea what your post has to do with mine Number23 Jan 2016 #63

Again, the news cycle changes. Cassiopeia Jan 2016 #64

Oh, I see what you're saying now. Number23 Jan 2016 #65

Is Jim Webb still the anti Hillary? jfern Jan 2016 #25

Well DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #44

Nate Silver is OK at using poll averages to predict general elections in a week jfern Jan 2016 #66

Then Bernie Sanders supporters should keep donating, volunteering, and spreading the word Eric J in MN Jan 2016 #27

I am optimistic but BlueMTexpat Jan 2016 #28

Hmm.. Kentonio Jan 2016 #32

I don't understand why anyone would vote for Hillary coyote Jan 2016 #33

It's been outlined before on these pages. randome Jan 2016 #35

Nate is not infallible. Even he would tell you that. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #37

Polls plus is arbitrary nonsense. joshcryer Jan 2016 #38

That is basically the same model he has used to predict the last four elections. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #46

This is the first time he's factoring endorsements. joshcryer Jan 2016 #51

That was a lot to read... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #54

He never had a "polls plus" metric in the general. joshcryer Jan 2016 #55

But his general election model relied on more than just polls. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #56

We all know rjsquirrel Jan 2016 #52

Thanks for the links. Great find! **We Are Team Hillary** :-) Alfresco Jan 2016 #61