2016 Postmortem

reformist2

(9,841 posts)

30. Nate has been "weighting" his calculations this year, essentially putting his finger on the scale.

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:30 AM

Mar 2016

What he ought to have been doing is adjusting his calculations based on prior crappy performance.

For example, when the PPP polling agency turned out to be off by more than 8 points in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nate should have reduced their weighting, or even should have started adjusting their poll results accordingly. But he continued to leave their numbers alone and give them a high weighting or importance, perpetuating the appearance that Hillary had strong leads everywhere. In a way, Michigan isn't all that different from the other outcomes. It's just that instead of Hillary squeaking out a small win that covered up how wrong the polls were, this time she couldn't put it together.

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What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means [View all] Uncle Joe Mar 2016 OP

All I've got to say is "Go Bernie Go!" highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #1

Yeah, I saw this. It's great! "stack of humble pie" indeed. (nt) pat_k Mar 2016 #2

With a side of crow n/t sarge43 Mar 2016 #20

Well Kall Mar 2016 #3

K&R And a hearty thank you to Michigan! nt Live and Learn Mar 2016 #4

Or in other words, you cannot poll your way to success, you have to earn it nolabels Mar 2016 #5

I agree, nolabels, Bernie had faith in the people and Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #6

F U Nate Yuugal Mar 2016 #7

He was around in 2008 CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #23

Oligarchs and Wall Street banksters are a conspiracy theory? Enthusiast Mar 2016 #31

I don't blame Nate... statistics are statistics and he knows how to calculate them, but renate Mar 2016 #8

Wait. Yuugal Mar 2016 #19

Nate has been "weighting" his calculations this year, essentially putting his finger on the scale. reformist2 Mar 2016 #30

K&R quantumjunkie Mar 2016 #9

A case of pugetres Mar 2016 #10

There are so many intangibles that numbers simply can't or don't capture and I believe Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #12

Yeah, I think the polls are way off for a couple of reasons. Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #11

Plus they have been highly motivated PATRICK Mar 2016 #13

Pollsters can get any result they want. delrem Mar 2016 #16

HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Mar 2016 #14

Either Nate got played, or he's a player. delrem Mar 2016 #15

He's a player. Enthusiast Mar 2016 #28

Sarah Silverman said it outloud "Bernie can't be bought" -- the kind of man we want as President! Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #17

Boo-Yah billhicks76 Mar 2016 #18

Nate Silver had put her at >99% change of winning! Helen Borg Mar 2016 #21

Who is Nat Silver? HERVEPA Mar 2016 #32

Wasn't Hillary supposed to be the presumptive nominee? Deadshot Mar 2016 #22

Don't quit your day job, Nate. bvf Mar 2016 #24

I think Sanders' win in Michigan showed that voters didn't forget NAFTA and the WTO bulloney Mar 2016 #25

Open primaries are really the key. Over 15K changed party requests in MI Jitter65 Mar 2016 #26

If the data doesn't include what is already off the conventional radar it is impossible to see it. Ford_Prefect Mar 2016 #27

LIAR! You didn't eat humble pie because Bernie made you. You ate it because you attempted to merrily Mar 2016 #29

Nate has so much egg on his face that he asked someone else to eat his humble pie for him. Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #33

Now they have decided that Bernie probably won because of the Democrats who crossed over to Trump jopacaco Mar 2016 #34