2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)If we nominate Hillary, we give up a huge advantage we'd have with independents; she's negative 42% [View all]
Last edited Wed May 4, 2016, 06:12 PM - Edit history (1)
Just 20% of independents view Hillary positively, compared with 62% who view her negatively. These are historically bad numbers, and independents now outnumber both Republicans and Democrats (and almost outnumber Republicans plus Democrats) and so no candidate can win without appealing to independents.
Hillary's problem with independents is huge, but her bigger problem may be with the dis-empowered (of both parties) who see that the system is rigged against them and tilted in favor of the wealthiest Americans:
Many of these dis-empowered people (lots of whom are Democrats) do not prioritize immigration issues (either regarding the stupid fucking Mexican-border wall or the blatantly bigoted policies toward Muslims) or foreign militaristic issues (illegally interventionist against ISIL and otherwise neo-isolationist) and so they are not as troubled as you or me by Trump's buffoonish rhetoric on these topics.
The dis-empowered voters see the main issue of the campaign like this: the economy is broken and I am forgotten, and whatever else you might say about Trump and Hillary, he gets it and she doesn't.
When Hillary supporters say they do not see how any Democrats would find Trump's populist message tempting, they sound like the Carter Democrats who said the same thing about Reagan.
I do not disagree with those who say Hillary is the strong favorite to win the nomination and - if nominated - the general election is hers to lose. But if Hillary does not see the pathway to losing against Trump and persists in failing to work toward fixing her gaping weakness, she may be destined to achieving only the level of success that Jeb, and Rubio, and Cruz managed when they underestimated Trump.