2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: If we nominate Hillary, we give up a huge advantage we'd have with independents; she's negative 42% [View all]Bill USA
(6,436 posts)votes for other candidates will go to Trump. Now that is what I'd call either moronic or misleading.
And it's not realistic to think ALL Bernie fans will, with childish vindictiveness, refuse to vote for Hillary. 40% of Repubs polled said they would not support Trump. Now, if you take an extreme estimate, let's say only half the Bernie voters will vote for Hillary ... that would bump up Hillary's vote total to 16,834,471 compared to Trump's 15,290,105 (taking all the votes cast in GOP primaries multiplied by .6 = 15,290,105). So, 16.8 mil is greater than 15.2 mil. This is just the votes cast in the primaries so far - adjusted for a race just between Hillary and Trump. Again, this is making an assumption that the voting in these primaries will be an indicator or how the rest of the country will vote in the GE. It will be a better indicator after the California results are in.
RE Caucus states: Now when adding the votes in the states that had primaries & caucuses (the caucus states (13 at this point for Dems) the caucus state totals reduce HRC's votes as well as Sanders and regardless, that wouldn't make that much difference when comparing to Trumps numbers- since GOP also had caucus states too - (11 so far). Thus the vote totals of the candidate could be used as an indicator of how the rest of the states would vote in the GE. Using these numbers then, it could be expected that Hillary will beat Trump. Yes, this is just an estimate......
[font size="3"] ... Sooooo, if you prefer you can go by what the odds are on who would win a presidential race between Clinton and Trump.....
Hillary Clinton vs Trump is the most lopsided US election race in the modern era: Hillary: 69% vs Trump: 29%[/font]
Now that hes wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being Americas next president have shot up from 17 per cent to 29 per cent.
But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favorite (Mr Sanders or some other Republican both have a 1 per cent chance).
That means Ms Clinton begins this six-month race more favoured than any other candidate in modern history: more than Mr Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012, or George Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
(more)
[font size="+1"] Hey, I think I'll go with that.[/font]
[font size="3"]...OH, and thanks for the artwork from America Rising:
"America Rising is comprised of a "super PAC" (America Rising PAC) [font color="red"]and a limited liability company that can legally work directly with political campaigns and committees[/font]"
see: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/America_Rising
Oh, here's an interesting number: [/font]
[font size="+1"]
Poll: 3-in-4 say Benghazi panel politically motivated - CNN
But hey, I gotta give it to the Repugnants - their 25 year campaign to demonize both President Clinton and Hillary has been quite succussful. Many people think she's not trustworthy - and they don't even know why!
But I must say this in closing: Trump is a Con-man's Con-man. But that makes him a perfect GOP candidate![/font]