Ted Kennedy, Bernie, and history repeating itself right now

[karynnj]

23. Kennedy did not ruin the general

Part of the problem was that in 1979, Carter's popularity sank to the 30s as the gas lines grew. People blamed him after OPEC cut supplies. They also blamed him for inflation and extremely high interest rates. (For those too young to remember, home mortgage rates went up to the double digits -- ie as high as 16%! )

His favorability actually increased when the Iran hostages were taken - something I didn't remember, but which gallup shows in a peak that lasted about 4 months starting in November 1979. His favorability then returned to the 30s.

Kennedy considered jumping in over the summer in 1979, finally making it official at the beginning of November. He lost the early primaries in Jan- March as Carter's favorability rose and as he dealt with the crisis. The timing was awful.

Then the rescue mission failed, Carter had the nomination and his favorability sunk back into the 30s.

He was further harmed when a liberal Republican (they had them then) John Anderson ran as an independent. He likely cause Carter to lose many states - such as Massachusetts to Reagan.

This also ignores that this was a wave election and people wanted change. In addition to Carter, 10 liberal Senators seeking reelection lost - including many never thought at risk - like McGovern and Birch Bayh lost as well. Given that -- it is rather likely that without Kennedy and Anderson, Carter would still have lost.