Hillary Clinton cannot win the general without Bernie and his supporters

[LenaBaby61]

19. Correct. Romney won independents in 2012 by 5% points ....

But NOT the election.


In the final days of the 2012 presidential campaign, Mitt Romney's political director Rich Beeson was steadfast about his candidate's chances in key swing state Ohio.

"Whoever wins independent voters in Ohio, wins Ohio," Beeson said on "Fox News Sunday," two days before the election.

He was, of course, wrong. Romney won self-identified Independents in Ohio by a overwhelming 10 points, according to exit polls, but lost the state to President Barack Obama by 2 points.

A similar trend was seen across much of the country — Romney won among Independents by 5 points, 50-45, but lost to Obama, 51-48. The numbers illustrate why winning the Independent vote in pre-election polls isn't necessarily a telltale sign of victory, as many political strategists have suggested.
In fact, what the Independent vote is often more telling of is a lack of commitment among "leaners" to the party.

The best example of that is seen in a candidate to which Romney is often compared — John Kerry, who won the Independent vote by a single point in 2004, but lost the election by about the same margin as Romney did in 2012.

What this means is that the Independent vote is, for two reasons, an unreliable indicator of electoral success. In 2004, Kerry was a candidate who was never completely accepted by the Democratic base. Sound familiar? Except this time, Romney was never fully beloved by the Republican base.

Jim Williams, an analyst at Public Policy Polling, explained during the "unskewing" controversy that a voter's choice to identify as an Independent can change by the day. Republicans who were disenchanted with Romney might have been more apt to identify as Independent, as Democrats were in 2004 when they were dissatisfied with Kerry.

In 2012, a much more reliable indicator of success — and a better example of the "swing" vote — came from voters who identified as "moderate." In every critical battleground state, Obama won the moderate vote. In Iowa, he captured more than 60% of it. Overall, Obama beat Romney by 15 points among moderates.

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-independent-vote-polls-moderates-election-2012-11

Also, as Nate Silver points out, it's a bit too early for all of these polls. We're still on the Democratic side in a primary race. Additionally as Silver points out, there's just not enough 'credible' polling out there on many fronts to be making decisive statements this early. It's not even June yet.