My Critique of Nate Silver’s Critique of Exit Polls

[Godhumor]

16. Those are still preliminary

They don't just poll and push the numbers out. They have to be weighted, modeled, assessed in the sample, etc. As a result, the demographic release a couple hours before polls closed and the match-up release when polls close are consist largely of first wave results plus a smattering of 2nd and 3rd depending on how fast results are processed.

Those will then change, even if not reported, as more exit data is processed and weighed against actual results.

The demographic exit, by the way, is the main purpose of this exercise. The one at poll close is primarily a bone for the pundits to have something to talk about.