2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Thank you, ebayfool!
Taking this into account
Kern County, California, with its county seat Bakersfield, hasn't carried for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. (LBJ won the U.S. Popular Vote by D+22.58. He carried California by D+19.68. Back then, with the Old Confederacy states the base for the Democrats, numerous of today's Democratic base states were base states for Republicans. So, LBJ underperformed his margin from winning a Democratic pickup that year from California versus his national result.)
According to Wikipedia.org:
@ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kern_County,_California
The county has had around 200,000 votes for cast for president of the United States in recent election cycles. It looks to me, looking at the 1930s and 1940s Democratic carriage of Kern County, like it voted like the Confederacy States in terms of its Democratic margins. In the 1950s and 1960s, it voted close to statewide and/or nationwide results. But, after the 1960s, Kern County trended Republican. And that it is voting like some Confederacy Stateswith strong Republican identification. In 2008 and 2012, Kern County was about +40 percentage points in its Republican tilt. (President Obama won the state of California by more than +20 each time. And that is where Kent County performed in carrying for losing Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney over those two election cycles. So, yeah, that means that Kent County is one hell of a Republican stronghold. A Democrat would have to win about 69 percent of the vote statewide, at the presidential level, in order to manage to pull in Kern County. (Obama received 60.92 and 60.16, respectively, of the California vote in 2008 and 2012.)
By the way: (Thanks for letting me know your county. The detail that is too private, and I don't recommend sharing, is one's congressional district. That can more carefully pinpoint one's location. I don't recommend sharing that in public.) I am in Wayne County, Michigan, with its county seat Detroit. With the Democratic realigning election of Franklin Roosevelt, in 1932, my county hasn't carried for a Republican since Herbert Hoover in 1928. (Back then, the Republicans' base states included Michigan. Michigan had voted for all winning Republicans from the party's first nominee, John Fremont, in 1856 right through to Herbert Hoover in 1928, along the way with one exceptionTeddy Roosevelt's Progressive Party run in 1912. Michigan was one of six states that carry for Progressive Teddyalong with California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania. South Dakota, and the state of Washington.)
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