I have a prediction... We will have 4 parties after November

[Jim Lane]

79. The threshold is 5%, not 3%

Last edited Wed Jun 15, 2016, 02:50 AM - Edit history (1)

The disaffection with both presumptive major-party nominees is so great that the two leading minor parties can expect a good year. The Libertarians (about one percent of the vote in 2012) will pick up some traditional Republicans who can't stand Trump; the presence of Weld on the ticket will help that process. The Greens (about one third of one percent of the vote in 2012) will get some progressives who can't stand Clinton.

A big difference is that Clinton had the overwhelming support of the party establishment, while Trump ran against his party's establishment. As a result, with a significant bloc of Republican elected officials ranging from lukewarm support to express denunciations, it will be easier for rank-and-file Republicans to decide to defect. I think the Libertarian Party has a shot at hitting 5%, but the Green Party is very unlikely to, especially with Bernie endorsing Clinton.

Now, getting back to your OP... none of the above matters. Even if the Libertarians reach 5%, they will not elect the President anytime in the next several decades, and the Greens are even less likely to do so. As a practical matter, we will, in 2020, have two parties that have any realistic chance of winning the White House. The only significance of the minor parties will be in pulling off votes and thereby indirectly influencing which major-party nominee will win.

On edit: Here's a link to the FEC page giving the 5% figure.