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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: In 1980, did Ted Kennedy endorse Jimmy Carter? [View all]MADem
(135,425 posts)52. LBJ had terrible heart disease. That may have been the icing on the cake, but he had
been dithering for longer than that. LBJ--had he chosen to run--would have won the primary, and most likely re-election easily. This NYT article written by LBJ's Chief of Staff (and he oughta know) is helpful:
My perspective was that of the President's administrative chief of staff. My office was next to his. I can state categorically that fear of losing the 1968 election was not the reason he retired. Several days before the speech, Mr. Johnson commissioned a poll, which indicated that he would be re-elected over all possible candidates. I always have felt that he took that poll to satisfy himself that he wasn't being run out of office.
The real reason for Mr. Johnson's withdrawal was Vietnam. It was an involvement he had questioned as a Senator and about which he brooded as President. But his sense of Presidential continuity compelled him to pursue the commitments made by Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy.By Christmas 1967, Mr. Johnson had decided to announce his retirement at the close of his 1968 State of the Union Message to Congress. That part of the speech was assigned to Horace Busby, a former staff assistant and speech writer; the information was to be concealed from the rest of the staff. In the end, Mr. Johnson chose not to announce his retirement in that speech, largely because he sensed that the ambitious legislative program he wanted to push through Congress would be damaged if he became a lame duck. ..... At the time, I adopted the conventional wisdom that Mr. Johnson just couldn't give up power. But as 1968 unfolded, he continued to talk about his family, about how he always had been on the move and never had shared the joy of knowing his two daughters. He doted on his first grandson, Lyn Nugent, and said he wanted time to know his grandchildren. He talked about his health and repeated that his father and grandfather had died of heart failure at age 64. He said that he could not complete another full term as President, since he would be 64 during the last year of that term.
And he kept coming back to Vietnam - a blot on his Administration he wanted to remove. As an active candidate, he reasoned, he might miss or postpone an opportunity to achieve peace. ''What if we're late in the campaign and I have to make a decision that might result in a peace settlement but will be politically risky,'' he mused one night in March. ''I want my hands free to do what's necessary to end this thing.''
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/16/opinion/behind-lbj-s-decision-not-to-run-in-68.html
The real reason for Mr. Johnson's withdrawal was Vietnam. It was an involvement he had questioned as a Senator and about which he brooded as President. But his sense of Presidential continuity compelled him to pursue the commitments made by Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy.By Christmas 1967, Mr. Johnson had decided to announce his retirement at the close of his 1968 State of the Union Message to Congress. That part of the speech was assigned to Horace Busby, a former staff assistant and speech writer; the information was to be concealed from the rest of the staff. In the end, Mr. Johnson chose not to announce his retirement in that speech, largely because he sensed that the ambitious legislative program he wanted to push through Congress would be damaged if he became a lame duck. ..... At the time, I adopted the conventional wisdom that Mr. Johnson just couldn't give up power. But as 1968 unfolded, he continued to talk about his family, about how he always had been on the move and never had shared the joy of knowing his two daughters. He doted on his first grandson, Lyn Nugent, and said he wanted time to know his grandchildren. He talked about his health and repeated that his father and grandfather had died of heart failure at age 64. He said that he could not complete another full term as President, since he would be 64 during the last year of that term.
And he kept coming back to Vietnam - a blot on his Administration he wanted to remove. As an active candidate, he reasoned, he might miss or postpone an opportunity to achieve peace. ''What if we're late in the campaign and I have to make a decision that might result in a peace settlement but will be politically risky,'' he mused one night in March. ''I want my hands free to do what's necessary to end this thing.''
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/16/opinion/behind-lbj-s-decision-not-to-run-in-68.html
DC is a small town--and word does travel. LBJ was making noise about getting out nearly four months before RFK even announced. RFK sensed the opening and took it--in actual fact, he was probably "running" in order to run again four years later (something that Reagan did when he went up against Ford). RFK wasn't counting on being gunned down and becoming part of the Martin, Abraham, John and Bobby Supergroup of murdered heroes.
That was NOT the case with Ted Kennedy. Kennedy wasn't running with an attitude of "four years hence." He wanted to snatch the Presidency from Carter right then and there, who was the incumbent and the party leader, like it or not. The "northeast liberals" (and keep in mind, I am one of them) did have an unfortunate and snobby attitude towards southern politicians, and TK displayed a lot of that condescension. Sidebar: It took Bill Clinton to really crack that nut and change that POV. Carter was intending on running for the nomination, he wasn't making noise about his bad heart and his grandkids. TK got up in his face, and he displayed incredibly poor form--to say nothing of the absolutely SHITTIEST campaign strategy I've ever seen a "main media" candidate run in my life. Its hallmark was incompetence, made worse by TK's arrogance.
Also, we weren't fighting a grossly unpopular war that was killing kids by the tens of thousands when Ted decided to jump in. Carter and Ted didn't have differences on the scale of "Viet Nam, or No Viet Nam." They were on the same side of most issues--their arguments had to do with HOW to get from Point A to Point B.
It wasn't the same at all. The "anti-war" and "Finish The Job/We've Never Lost a War" factions of the Democratic Party were like oil and water--to the point that they were like different political parties altogether.
Also, it is important that you read your entire link, which repudiates your thesis down in the weeds:
Much of the media treated Kennedy's entrance as proof that Johnson was unlikely to be renominated. But as any hard-boiled, vote-counting politician would have realized on March 16 -- and Johnson was among the best -- RFK's entrance enhanced Johnson's chances. In 1968 delegates were largely controlled by elected officeholders and party bosses. And because McCarthy deeply detested Kennedy and was not about to withdraw or join forces with him, a three-way race meant the antiwar faction of the party was irrevocably split between two Catholic liberals. As the New York Times reported on March 24, LBJ seemed likely to get at least 65% of the delegates for the nomination.
Ted's entrance into the race didn't enhance Carter's chances like RFK's did to LBJ--again, not the same thing at all.
The guy who wrote that article you cite was a teen ager when LBJ made his decision to resign. I think the Chief of Staff's insight is cut a bit closer to the bone. RFK didn't 'chase LBJ off.' LBJ had just had enough--he was, if you will, "heart" sick. And he died, as he predicted, at the very same age as his "deddy" -- 64.
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He "snubbed" him. Not his finest hour. Ted Kennedy was an utter mess during that timeframe.
MADem
Jul 2016
#1
It's always strange that I never see such criticism directed against Bobby Kennedy's run in '68. N/T
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#9
Probably true; people's opinions on primary challenges are more influenced by the events surrounding
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#18
See post 52. LBJ's staff knew in Dec 1967 that he'd had enough--RFK didn't announce until Mar 68.
MADem
Jul 2016
#53
LBJ dropped out after RFK entered, and it was considered a surprise. One of the reasons why LBJ
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#50
LBJ had terrible heart disease. That may have been the icing on the cake, but he had
MADem
Jul 2016
#52
Do you have any evidence that RFK knew LBJ was going out? I've never seen anyone claim that, and it
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#54
DC is a small town and people have always talked. It wouldn't have mattered anyway. RFK
MADem
Jul 2016
#58
Your only evidence is "DC is a small town"? Even LBJ's chief of staff didn't know
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#60
It's not circles; the facts are that RFK was running against an incumbent when he entered the race
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#66
Even Johnson's chief of staff didn't know if Johnson was going to leave the race, and that was 2
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#73
My point, again, is that people TALK. His COS and everyone else in the room, perhaps "The Butler,"
MADem
Jul 2016
#75
Again, do you have any evidence of this? The people closest to him didn't know one way or another,
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#80
My "evidence" is my understanding of how things work in that town. I realize you want a
MADem
Jul 2016
#86
Do you know of any historian or person connected to either man that thought RFK knew?
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#89
More than one thing can be true--he certainly was "opposed" to LBJ (despised him, in fact) and
MADem
Jul 2016
#91
McCarthy's strong showing in New Hampshire had something to do with his dropping out nt
dflprincess
Jul 2016
#78
True, but I'm not sure what you're point is. It's OK to primary an incumbent if someone is already
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#81
Oh, I meant contemporary criticism from the "it's terrible to run against a sitting president"-crowd
Chathamization
Jul 2016
#84
Bobby was not running against a sitting party President. apples vs oranges nt
TeamPooka
Jul 2016
#105
One of his former aides wrote an entire book about it. The book took a small truth, that TK used
MADem
Jul 2016
#57
Edwards, from what I understand, has gone back into private law practice with his daughter.
MADem
Jul 2016
#72
I've been listening the audio version of Jimmy Carter's autobiography "A Full Life,"
Rhiannon12866
Jul 2016
#2
Ding, ding, ding! Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
BobbyDrake
Jul 2016
#55
yup, 3rd worst president ever. 1st was Hoover, 2nd was Bush Jr. - all Republicans
TeamPooka
Jul 2016
#106
kennedy's action in 1980 to me, forever tarnished the kennedy name. I never gave
beachbum bob
Jul 2016
#5
This is a very fair point you are making--it is sometimes a difficult one to make, because
MADem
Jul 2016
#74
While it certainly didn't help, and was disgraceful of Kennedy, it was the Iran Hostage
still_one
Jul 2016
#31
no question about that, reagan was a disaster for labor and most everything else
still_one
Jul 2016
#40
I realize that there are two issues, HRC's campaign platform and the Democratic Party Platform.
Eric J in MN
Jul 2016
#29
If HRC doesn't compromise, and Sanders doesn't endorse, and we get President Trump
Eric J in MN
Jul 2016
#35
I was unclear. I was referring to HRC's public position with regard to tuition
Eric J in MN
Jul 2016
#32
Cinton voters were SPECIFICALLY voting AGAINST Sanders policy and platform proposals.
MohRokTah
Jul 2016
#22
I agree that if Sanders doesn't endorse, fine for HRC to not schedule a Sanders convention speech NT
Eric J in MN
Jul 2016
#23
Kennedy ran that year because he considered Carter ineffectual and too conservative
andym
Jul 2016
#39
I worked on the Kennedy campaign and that go a a paid job on the Carter campaign
Onlooker
Jul 2016
#76
Those may have been the same two kids I saw tossed out of a rather exclusive private club
MADem
Jul 2016
#79