2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: In 1980, did Ted Kennedy endorse Jimmy Carter? [View all]MADem
(135,425 posts)wasn't the first one to get in the race--McCarthy, the OTHER anti-war Catholic, had already broken the mold long before RFK entered (McCarthy jumped in in NOV 67, RFK in March 68). In fact, it could be argued that RFK's entry could have done more to ensure the nomination for LBJ had LBJ stayed in, because McCarthy and Kennedy would have split the antiwar and Roman Catholic left of left voting block, and LBJ would have cleaned up on the other side of the divide.
Given that there were only 13 primary states, and LBJ won TX handily, and two others (OH, FL) went to favorite sons, that left ten between them. They wouldn't have stood a chance. McCarthy was in there first, he had the better organization, he had the "Clean for Gene" crew, and he would not have backed away in favor of RFK, because they hated each other. At the end of the day, had he run, LBJ would have gotten the lion's share of the "establishment" votes (and he knew how the machine worked, and which buttons to push), and the remains would have been split between the other two.
Circumstances intervened to change the scenario, but no one foresaw that at the time.
RFK had to know that there was no way anyone was beating LBJ "IF" (and that is a big IF) he stayed in--regardless of media hype. And he wasn't a political neophyte--he was plowing the field for a later harvest. He just didn't count on getting killed.
He likely expected to run and win in 72.
Reagan pulled the same stunt with Ford, but Ford held on and got the nomination, but he lost to Carter. Reagan then came back for a second bite of the apple and won, with the help of circumstance and the Ayatullah.