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2016 Postmortem

DFW

(54,370 posts)

13. This is sort of saying "watch out for that 5%"

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Fri Aug 19, 2016, 07:38 AM

Aug 2016

A 5% chance of Trump winning is still that 1 in 20 that all people hope against. You know, like the diagnosis that "you shouldn't worry. If you take your medication as prescribed, what you have has a 95% successful cure rate."

Sure, we all still feel nervous until the cure is confirmed. That's why we take our medicine as prescribed--in this case conduct an election campaign as if the odds were not so heavily stacked in our favor. The reason for that is that if we let down our guard for one minute, they no longer will be.

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18 replies

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Two Presidential election experts predict 2016 is not a easy call [View all] bigdarryl Aug 2016 OP

Yup uppityperson Aug 2016 #1

I imagine these 'experts' lovemydog Aug 2016 #2

Based on precedents like Trump? whatthehey Aug 2016 #3

But polls won't tell you either... brooklynite Aug 2016 #16

Depends what you infer whatthehey Aug 2016 #17

"Trump the Insult Dog". randome Aug 2016 #18

“This is the toughest election I have ever had to call.” WHAT???!!! Hortensis Aug 2016 #4

Until every poll only uses likely voters which is after Labor Day, there's no telling yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #5

Good try. Kingofalldems Aug 2016 #6

I keep wishing the election were held today. :) Hortensis Aug 2016 #7

I definitely think election season is too long yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #8

Oh, yes! Two-year "seasons" mean full-time Hortensis Aug 2016 #10

I disagree with GA. being totally in republicans hand.It could flip blue according to polling bigdarryl Aug 2016 #11

But he did say Hillary should win if the five key deficit stays for me its 4 keys down bigdarryl Aug 2016 #12

Since I live in Georgia I of course would especially Hortensis Aug 2016 #14

BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! MohRokTah Aug 2016 #9

This is sort of saying "watch out for that 5%" DFW Aug 2016 #13

I call bullshit. Fast Walker 52 Aug 2016 #15