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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver moved Florida (and North Carolina) to Trump... [View all]Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)30. That actually has been my feel for a while
and nate explains what you noted in his analysis.
Hill's national lead is getting watered down with larger proportions being in states she has big leads in or some republican states that she can't win, like Texas, that normally the D will lose by 15, but she is only down like 6 percent.
Ohio has been the one swing state she never has been able to get any real traction, and the way things are breaking right now is a bell weather for the "rust belt" surge Trump has been playing all along, and we are seeing Mich and Wisky tightening more than we would be comforable with. Pa is buffered by the eastern part of the state.
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Are you sure? Why is Nate so spooked then? It seems to me like FL will be blue too
AgadorSparticus
Nov 2016
#107
that's his model, not him. He programmed the model and those are the numbers
geek tragedy
Nov 2016
#3
that's the problem, they're not doing very well at GOTV in Florida, especially
geek tragedy
Nov 2016
#7
That's what I did last election. Ended up not trusting the process, so voted in person.
Native
Nov 2016
#61
Great, link to your history of past elections, would love to see your blog! N/t
ScienceIsGood
Nov 2016
#45
Nate Silver has a website competing for traffic in the waning days of the election.
BobbyDrake
Nov 2016
#9
He's not including data from the outlier polls with the crap methodology is he?
AgadorSparticus
Nov 2016
#108
iirc, Republicans usually *lead* in FL early voting, and not by a small margin
0rganism
Nov 2016
#81
yeah, just saw that FL is in the light red column for all three predictors
Farmgirl1961
Nov 2016
#47
I had heard that as well...but heard that it might be due to limited polling locations
Farmgirl1961
Nov 2016
#51
I want to ask a serious question with seemingly coming across as being overly "concerned" or a troll
Farmgirl1961
Nov 2016
#53
Just donated. How about a thread with links to Senate races we need to contribute to.
chimpymustgo
Nov 2016
#90
It has been said three days before the election people should ignore polling results
nolabels
Nov 2016
#73
It's moved from very pale blue to very pale pink. The 0 point isn't actually that significant.
Donald Ian Rankin
Nov 2016
#84